Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demand

• Copper futures rose above USD 6.29 per pound, nearing record highs, supported by expectations of long-term demand from artificial intelligence, power grids, clean energy and electrification.
• Supply concerns are increasing due to disruptions in sulfuric acid availability, China’s export ban and weaker copper production in Chile, which fell by around 6% year on year in Q1 2026.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo could strengthen its role in the global copper market through a major China-backed mining project that may produce 200,000–500,000 tonnes of copper per year.

Copper futures prices rose above USD 6.29 per pound, approaching the record levels seen at the end of January. The increase is driven by a combination of two factors: expectations of long-term demand growth and mounting concerns about disruptions in production and supply. Copper, as a metal essential to energy, industry, infrastructure and new technologies, remains one of the most important commodities in the global economic transformation.

Demand supported by Artificial Intelligence, energy and industrial transformation

Investors assume that demand for copper will continue to grow for many years. Key sources of demand are expected to include investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, modernization of power grids and the development of clean energy. The metal is essential in cables, installations, data centers, transmission systems, electric vehicles and many technologies linked to the electrification of the economy.

Lower energy prices have provided additional support for the market, easing concerns about the condition of the global economy and demand for industrial metals. As a result, copper has gained importance as a commodity that connects investors’ short-term expectations with long-term technological and infrastructure trends.

Sulfuric acid problems increase supply-side risk

The rise in copper prices is being driven not only by strong demand prospects, but also by concerns over the availability of raw materials needed for its processing. Particular market attention is focused on sulfuric acid, which is used in the copper refining process. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of this component, while China has introduced an export ban from May until at least December.

Beijing’s decision could reduce the global seaborne sulfuric acid market by around 3 million tonnes. Chile, Indonesia and India are the most exposed to the effects of these restrictions. The significance of the problem is highlighted by the situation in Chile, where copper production fell by around 6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Restrictions on access to sulfuric acid could therefore further hamper efforts to increase refined copper supply at a time when the market expects rising demand.

Congo could strengthen its position in the global copper market

Against the backdrop of growing supply tensions, the Democratic Republic of Congo is gaining increasing importance. Chinese state-owned company China Railway Group Ltd., known as CREC, plans to develop one of the potentially largest copper projects in the world there. Company representatives met with Congo’s Minister of Mines, Louis Watum, to discuss the investment, which is being carried out in cooperation with a CREC subsidiary and Congolese state-owned diamond company MIBA.

The planned mine would be located in Kasai-Oriental province, outside the traditional copper-mining region of Katanga. Its target output could range from 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper per year. This scale would make the project one of the more significant mining ventures in the global copper market.

Chinese investment has strategic significance

The project in Congo has not only economic but also geopolitical significance. President Félix Tshisekedi is expected to support the rapid launch of the investment, which could further strengthen the country’s position as the world’s second-largest copper supplier after Chile. Copper production in Congo has more than tripled over the past decade, and Chinese companies currently account for the majority of the country’s output.

The development of a new mine would demonstrate the further strengthening of China’s influence in Africa’s raw materials sector. At the same time, the United States is trying to increase its presence in Congolese mining, indicating that access to copper is becoming an increasingly important element of global economic competition. This commodity is crucial for energy, electromobility, industry and infrastructure, which is why control over its sources is gaining strategic importance.

Copper price outlook remains positive

The current situation in the copper market combines strong demand fundamentals with growing supply-side uncertainty. On the one hand, the development of artificial intelligence, power grids, electromobility and clean energy could support demand for the metal for many years. On the other hand, disruptions in sulfuric acid supplies, falling production in Chile and competition for new sources of raw material are increasing the risk of supply constraints.

Under these conditions, upward pressure on copper prices may persist. The planned investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo shows that the largest economies and commodity companies are preparing for a long-term increase in the importance of this metal. Copper remains one of the key raw materials of the future, and its market is increasingly reflecting both the pace of technological transformation and geopolitical competition for access to strategic resources.