Commodities: all news & analysis

Explore our extensive commodities news, which unveils critical insights into price movements, trends, and expert forecasts in the raw materials market. By examining price actions and understanding the factors influencing commodity values, understand current market dynamics. This page is designed to boost your research on historical trends, identify seasonal patterns, and sharpen your trading strategies across sectors such as energy, metals, and agriculture. Equip yourself with the knowledge necessary to enhance your understanding of the commodities landscape and elevate your trading decisions.

Brent Crude - Is the oil rally running on fumes as Brent nears $100?

Oil rally is not a repeat of last year $100 a major psychological level Divergences appearing Oil prices are increasingly hitting the headlines, with Brent crude coming within five dollars of triple figures which will naturally bring back bad memories of last year's price surge. It is worth noting that, while oil could top $100, this is very different from 2022 and is largely being driven by OPEC+ tipping the market into deficit which is unlikely to be the long-term plan.

28-09-2023 12:08 GMT by Craig Erlam

XAU/USD - Hawkish Fed commentary pushes gold back below $1,900

Hawkish Fed speak continues to pressure gold Two key technical support levels broken today Gold trading at a six month low Gold continues to drift lower after breaking below $1,900, a key area of support in recent weeks. The yellow metal had been range-bound between $1,900 and $1,950 around the major central bank meetings this month and it would appear a hawkish Fed when others have adopted a more neutral tone has pushed it over the edge. The dollar has been charging higher over the last week

27-09-2023 12:20 GMT by Craig Erlam

Brent Crude - Oil on the rise again after taking a small breather

Price breaks higher after brief consolidation Oil market remains tight, supporting prices Momentum indicators may be key near $100 After a week of consolidation, oil prices are on the rise again on Wednesday ahead of the release of inventory data from EIA. The API release yesterday may have surprised some, recording an increase of 1.586 million barrels, a lot more than the 0.7 million decline that's expected today. But it won't alter the view that the market is extremely tight following a numb

27-09-2023 11:38 GMT by Craig Erlam

WTI Oil Technical: Continuation of potential impulsive up move within a major uptrend

The recent minor corrective pull-back of -4.7% from its 19 September 2023 high of US$93.05 is likely to have ended. Bullish reversal candlestick, a daily “Hammer” sighted after a retest on its upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Key short-term support to watch will be at US$90.30, the pull-back of the former minor “pennant” range resistance. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance” published on 2

27-09-2023 01:58 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Oil pares gains in risk-averse trade

Potential profit-taking after immense rally Economic pessimism may weigh in the future Bullish flag formation may suggest there's more to come Risk aversion in markets may be weighing on oil prices a little, especially if economic fears are fueling that sentiment. Oil prices have rallied strongly on the back of supply restrictions and the economy failing to live up to expectations was always going to be one of the primary counter-risks for the price.

26-09-2023 11:21 GMT by Craig Erlam

Podcast - China Evergrande liquidation risk spooked Asian equities and US PCE inflation data on the radar next

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the fallout seen in Asian benchmark stock indices triggered by another round of liquid crunch being spiraled into China's property market. This latest round of negative feedback loop has been reinforced by China Evergrande's liquid risk as a key meeting with creditors to discuss its overdue bond payments restructuring plan has been scrapped by the company without clear explanations.

26-09-2023 02:21 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Fed delivers a hawkish skip, King Dollar remains, Oil's minor pullback

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to the FOMC decision.

20-09-2023 23:14 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Edging higher again ahead of the Fed decision

Will the Fed leave the door open to another hike? Dot plot key for expectations Gold nears key resistance ahead of decision The Fed meeting today is widely expected to end in an agreement not to hike interest rates this month with the key takeaway being whether they intend to again in this cycle. The ECB strongly hinted that it is probably done last week but I'm not convinced we'll get the same signal from the Fed and neither, it would appear, are markets. We have seen the odds of another hike

20-09-2023 12:30 GMT by Craig Erlam

WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance

Recent 4 weeks of bullish movement in WTI crude oil has flashed out bullish exhaustion conditions. At the risk of shaping a bearish counter-trend/mean reversion movement within a major uptrend phase. Key resistance will be at US$93.80 with intermediate support zone of US$86.30/US$84.90 West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures)’s relentless medium-term uptrend move of +19% from the 24 August 2023 low of US$77.00/barrel to yesterday’s 19 September high of US$93.05/barrel has flashed out s

20-09-2023 02:04 GMT by Kelvin Wong

EUR/CAD: Loonie rallies after hot inflation report make next BOC meeting a coin flip

BOC's three-month moving average surged by a full point to 4.5% Odd's for the October 25th BOC policy meeting jumped to 50.5% vs 25.1% yesterday The December 6th implied rate for Canada is at 5.233% (nearly fully prices in a quarter point rate rise) The Canadian dollar currency is surging against the euro after a hot inflation report raised concerns that the Bank of Canada (BOC) might not be done raising rates. Inflation was clearly boosted by the surge with gasoline prices, and that will get

19-09-2023 12:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Gold - Cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve decision

Fed decision and forecasts on Wednesday could be very significant Is the Fed ready to replicate the ECB's explicitly dovish statement? Gold testing key resistance zone ahead of the meeting Gold is trading a little flat on Tuesday, perhaps showing a little caution ahead of the Fed meeting after a decent recovery in recent days. The yellow metal slipped back toward $1,900 amid resilient economic figures from the US that fed into fears of interest rates staying high for longer

19-09-2023 08:12 GMT by Craig Erlam

Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms

Bullish tone dissipated last Friday, 15 September ex-post Arm’s IPO spectacularly first-day positive performance as the Nasdaq 100 had a weekly close below the 50-day moving average for the 4th time in the past six weeks. Rising market-based inflationary expectations in line with recent magnificent rallies seen in oil prices may cause the Fed to be less dovish on the timing to enact the first interest rate cut in 2024. 15,540 is the key short-term resistance to watch. This is a follow-up analy

19-09-2023 01:44 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Brent Crude - Relentless oil rally showing no signs of exhaustion

Saudi and Russian cuts continue to drive the price higher Could a cooler economy push it back? Momentum indicators continue to support the rally This oil rally has been relentless and I'm not seeing any signs of exhaustion yet. A 15% rally in the space of around three weeks to trade at levels not seen since last November and not far from triple figures, it's been an impressive move and there could be more to come.

18-09-2023 12:50 GMT by Craig Erlam

USD/CAD: Loonie rides oil's bullish wave

US dollar weakness emerges on as inflation expectations fall to lowest levels in over two year; November Fed rate hike odds remain a coin flip Oil rallies for a third straight week on tightness concerns US oil rig count rises by 2 to 515 The one-way move with oil prices has finally started to provide some underlying support for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency however is starting to show some signs of exhaustion as short-term risks to the outlook grow. The short-term crude demand ou

15-09-2023 13:44 GMT by Edward Moya

Podcast - Wall Street ignores hot core inflation, still optimistic Fed likely done raising rates

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart and Trader Nick. They discuss Wall Street's reaction to a complicated US inflation report. They also outline the state of the oil market and why it will remain tight going into the winter. They also discuss the impact from the US bankruptcy Court for the district of Delaware decision to approve the liquidation of $3.4 billion in cryptos.

13-09-2023 15:16 GMT by Edward Moya

Brent crude - Oil rally accelerates higher after OPEC monthly report

Downside risks to the global economy remain Output restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia push oil market further into deficit Oil accelerates higher after brief consolidation Oil prices are creeping higher again on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $92 despite there being a mixed view on the economic outlook. As we heard from the European Commission yesterday, growth in the euro area is going to be relatively minor, with Germany struggling to avoid another recession.

12-09-2023 12:37 GMT by Craig Erlam

Podcast - China's deflationary pressure eases, further cooling expectations on US inflation may be derailed by rising oil prices

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss the latest China's consumer inflation and factory gate prices for August that have shown signs of easing deflationary pressures as well as the latest indirect monetary policy stimulus where China's financial regulator has allowed more leeway for Chinese insurance firms to invest their surplus cash into the China stock market. Upcoming ECB's monetary policy decision and US CPI prints for August where higher oil prices in the pas

12-09-2023 03:15 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Gold Technical: Bears are stalling again at the 200-day moving average ahead of US CPI and ECB

Last Friday’s price actions of spot Gold (XAU/USD) have managed to find support again at the 200-day moving average ahead of the US CPI data release & ECB monetary policy decision this week. The recent -5.15 % decline seen in Gold from its 20 July 2023 swing high of US$$1,987.53 has started to see some signs of short-term bullish reversal elements since 21 August 2023. The up-trending 10-year US Treasury real yield has also started to consolidate between 1.95% to 2.00% level.

10-09-2023 23:55 GMT by Kelvin Wong

Podcast - Bad week for stocks, good week for oil

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discuss Wall Street's losing week, a robust Canadian jobs report, and oil's bullish trend. Next week's US inflation data and retail sales report will be key for the Fed's November rate hike expectations.

08-09-2023 14:25 GMT by Edward Moya

Week Ahead - US inflation key, ECB ponders rate pause, UK labor market data

This week is all about the US CPI report and retail sales data. If the US demand for goods didn’t weaken that much and if inflation heated up, rate hike expectations for the November meeting might become the consensus. The inflation report might not be as clear as headline inflation will obviously rise given the surge in gasoline prices, but core might deliver another subdued reading.

08-09-2023 09:57 GMT by Craig Erlam

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