Chart alert: WTI crude oil key short-term support at $102.25 for another 20% rally

• Oil surges amid geopolitical supply fears: West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped as much as 30% intraday to $119.54, marking its highest level since 2022, driven by concerns that the US–Iran war in 2026 could disrupt global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pullback after potential strategic reserve release: Prices later retraced to around $102–$103 after reports that several Group of Seven nations may coordinate a release of emergency oil reserves to ease supply pressures.
• Technical outlook remains bullish above key support: As long as WTI holds above $102.25, the short-term bullish acceleration phase may persist with potential upside targets at $124.40 and $130–$132, while a break below that level could trigger a deeper correction toward $92–$86.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil bullish breakout above $78.10/barrel in play”, published on 5 March 2026.

West Texas (WTI) crude oil has continued its relentless bullish move in today’s Asia session, 9 March 2026, where it gapped up and staged an intraday rally of 30% to print a current high of $119.54/barrel, its highest level since June 2022.

Thereafter, WTI crude oil gains have been reduced by almost half to around 13% to trade at around $102.90/barrel after a media report highlighted that three of the G-7 countries, including the US, have expressed support for a possible joint release of their respective stockpile of oil reserves.

The recent steep rally seen in oil prices, WTI crude oil recorded a weekly gain of 35.6% for the week of March 2, 2026, its best weekly performance since the week of July 30, 1979 (+38.7%) has been attributed to a rising risk that global oil supplies may face significant shortages to the a prolong closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran stated that its military forces are prepared to continue an “intense war” against the US and Israel for at least six months.

Here’s the latest potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the $102.25 tightened key short-term pivotal support on the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures). to maintain the minor bullish acceleration leg/phase from the 26 February 2026 low.

Next intermediate resistances are located at $124.40 and $130.30/132.67 (Fibonacci extension and the important major swing high of 7 March 2022, formed during the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).

However, a break and an hourly close below $102.25 negates the bullish tone to kickstart an extended minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at $92.47 (lower limit of the gap support), and $86.10 (the pull-back of the former minor ascending channel resistance).

• The current corrective pull-back from its intraday high of $119.54 has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep rally from the 4 March 2026 low to the 9 March 2026 current intraday high.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to start a rebound from a key ascending trend line support at around the 56 level, which suggests a potential revival of short-term bullish momentum.