Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish run is facing minor exhaustion below 64,145

• Nikkei 225 continued its strong rally to a fresh record high of 63,788, driven largely by technology-related heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Murata Manufacturing.
• Despite the broader medium-term bullish trend remaining intact, technical indicators now suggest a near-term corrective pullback risk below the 64,145 resistance level, supported by a developing bearish “Head & Shoulders” pattern.
• Momentum conditions have weakened as hourly RSI bearish divergence and Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis point to exhaustion in the recent five-wave bullish impulsive sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term retracement toward 61,945 and lower support zones.

This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs”, published on 16 April 2026.

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 index futures) have rallied as expected in the past four weeks and surpassed the 62,044, as highlighted in our earlier report.

It hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 63,788 on Monday, 11 May 2026, led by technology-related component stocks in the past month, such as Softbank Group (+58%), and Murata Manufacturing (+53%).

However, the price actions of financial assets do not move vertically, as there will be periods of countertrend movements or trend reversals due to changing sentiment.

Right now, the Nikkei 225 faces the risk of a minor corrective countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend phase.

Let’s unpack in greater detail.

Trend bias: Minor bearish corrective decline within medium-term uptrend below 64,145 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).

Supports: 61,945 (neckline of “Head & Shoulders”), 61,180/60,795, and 59,970 (also the 20-day moving average).

Next resistances: 65,010/65,040 and 66,190/66,568 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low).

• Since 7 May 2026, its price action has traced out a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, indicating a potential end of its minor uptrend phase from the 30 April 2026 low.
• Based on the Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci analysis, the price actions have completed a five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move sequence (labelled as i, ii, iii, iv & v) with a potential terminal level at 63,772 (based on 0.382 Fibonacci extension from the start of the minor bullish impulsive up move from the 30 April 2026 low). The next probable move is a minor corrective decline to retrace its prior five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish exhaustion condition (bearish divergence since 7 May 2026 at its overbought region, which supports the potential incoming minor corrective decline.