Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) potential bullish breakout above $4,900

• Gold positioning for breakout: After rebounding ~18% from March lows, gold is consolidating below the $4,900 resistance (near the 50-day MA), with technicals suggesting a potential bullish breakout if this level is cleared.
• Macro tailwinds improving: Rising odds of Fed rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and declining US real yields are reducing opportunity costs and creating a supportive backdrop for gold prices.
• Catch-up trade vs equities: Gold has lagged equities despite similar macro drivers, but intermarket dynamics point to a potential bullish catch-up move, towards $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 with key short-term support at $4,700/4,645.

Gold (XAU/USD) has held steady on Friday, 17 April 2026, during the Asian session with a minuscule intraday gain of 0.2% to trade at $4,800 at this time of writing.

The precious yellow metal was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of stagflation risk and higher longer-term interest rates.

Based on the pre-US-Iran war baseline set on 27 February 2026, gold has plummeted by 22% (high to low) to print an intraday low of $4,099 on 23 March 2026.

Thereafter, it rebounded by 18% to hit an intraday high of $4,871 on Wednesday, 15 April 2026, just below its 50-day moving average, which is acting as an intermediate resistance at around $4,900.

So far, spot gold based on prices quoted by the London Bullion Market Association has underperformed the other global cross-asset classes since the start of the war, where it still recorded a loss of 8% as of Thursday, 16 April 2026, versus positive gains seen in global equities where the MSCI All Country World Index rebounded back to almost the unchanged level (+0.69%), led by the US mega-cap technology centric, Nasdaq 100 that reversed to a gain of 5.50% (see Fig. 1).

The primary reason for gold to lag equities at this juncture (same movement but different pace) is due to its non-income-bearing feature, as gold does not yield dividends and earnings, but competes with the US dollar and fixed income assets such as bonds.

Intermarket analysis suggests that gold is likely to play a bullish catch-up at this juncture to narrow equities’ outperformance gap.

During the onset of the US-Iran war, the US Dollar Index staged a rally of 3% to hit an 11-month high of 100.64 on 31 March 2026 as Fed funds interest rate cut bets evaporated to a chance of zero in 2026 due to stagflation fear from a potential prolonged global oil supply shock via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As ceasefire chances have increased in the past five trading sessions, the CME FedWatch tool, as of 17 April 2026, has started to show an increased odds of a 25 basis points cut (from 0% to 33%), potentially reducing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% on the 9 December 2026 FOMC meeting (see Fig. 2).

An implied less hawkish Fed momentary policy priced by the Fed funds futures market has led to a 2.8% drop in the US Dollar Index to 98.20, and it has traded below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at the time of writing.

A further weakening of the US dollar is likely to boost another round of a positive feedback loop for gold.

Gold has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, a higher 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus inflationary expectations from break-even rate) will tend to imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding gold, in turn, lesser demand that may drive down prices of gold. Vice versa, gold will tend to benefit from a lower 10-year US Treasury real yield.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield has hit a 9-month high of 2.17% on 27 March 2026, just a whisker below its long-term pivotal resistance of 2.20% before it reversed down and broke a key ascending trendline support from the 2 March 2026 low that previously led to a sell-off in gold (see Fig. 3).

Right now, a break below its recent 15 April 2026 low of 1.85% (also the 200-day moving average) is likely to see further weakness in the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its medium-term range support at 1.66%, in turn, benefiting gold.

Let us now dissect the short-term outlook (1 to 3 days) of gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

The price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been traded above its 20-day moving average since a retest of it on Monday, 13 April 2026 (after the failure of the first round of US-Iran peace talks).

Watch the $4,700/4,645 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above $4,900 sees the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 in the first step (see Fig. 4).

However, a break and an hourly close below $4,645 invalidates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next intermediate support at $4,524/4,486 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 March 2026 low to 15 April 2026 high).

• Price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been oscillating within a minor ascending channel since the 23 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at a horizontal support of 39.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 27 March 2026 low of $4,351 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at $4,980/5,166 (1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions).