Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 next

Gold breaks into price discovery: XAU/USD reversed sharply from a shallow pullback, cleared its prior all-time high, and is now entering a bullish acceleration phase, with US$4,780 emerging as the next upside target if momentum holds.

Macro backdrop strongly supportive: Softer US labour data, cooler-than-feared core inflation, rising geopolitical risk, and mounting concerns over Fed independence are reinforcing demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Technical and intermarket signals align: Gold remains firmly above its rising 20- and 50-day MAs, momentum is constructive, and capped US real yields are reducing opportunity costs, supporting further upside as long as US$4,512 holds.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal next”, published on 7 January 2025.

The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have only done a shallow, minor corrective pull-back towards the first immediate support zone of US$4,430/4,403 (printed an intraday low of US$4,407 on last Thursday, 8 January 2025.

Thereafter, the yellow metal underwent a bullish reversal and surged above its prior all-time high of US$4,550, set on 26 December 2025. In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, it traded firmer, rallied by 0.8% to hit another intraday all-time high of US$4,639 on the time of writing.

A soft US labour market (non-farm payroll for December missed expectations).

US inflation is not as red hot as feared (US core CPI for December came in below that expected on both m/m and y/y).

Fed’s independence at stake; after a surprising US Department of Justice’s criminal charge being slapped on Fed Chair Powell, in a possible attempt to remove him as a Fed Governor after his chairmanship ends in May.

Rising geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US.

Let us now decipher the next short-term movement in Gold (XAU/USD) based on a technical analysis perspective.

Watch the US$4,512 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,645 increases the odds of a bullish acceleration towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,684/4,687, US$4,720, and US$4,774/4,780 (Fibonacci extension clusters) (see Fig. 1).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below US$4,512 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for another round of minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support zone at US$4,430/4,403 (also the rising 20-day moving average).

• Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) remain in a constructive minor and medium-term uptrend phases as it continues to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) is holding above a parallel ascending trendline at the 50 level, which suggests a potential short-term bullish condition.
• Intermarket analysis: Since 10 December 2025, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (after subtracting the 10-year US breakeven rate that measures US inflationary expectations in the next 10 years) has been capped by its 200-day moving average and a key medium-term resistance at the 1.87% level. These observations suggest that opportunity costs of holding gold are unlikely to see upside pressure, in turn, increasing the demand for gold (see Fig. 2).