Bitcoin stable above $100,000 on trade optimism: BTC/USD analysis

• Bitcoin, currently trading at ~$104,003, remains stable above the key psychological level of $100,000 in a period of consolidation
• Boosted trade optimism, increased rate cut bets, and further institutional recognition are currently offering support to Bitcoin pricing

~5.26% below all-time highs, Bitcoin is enjoying a period of bullish momentum, having previously found support from March lows.

Currently trading in a period of consolidation, recent optimism brought about by US trade relations, a change in the perceived likelihood of rate cuts, and increasing government buy-in have helped bolster pricing for the world’s #1 cryptocurrency.

With falls in cryptocurrency pricing earlier this year inextricably linked to the Trump administration’s introduction of sweeping tariffs, recent developments regarding the future of trade have helped recover losses.

Having struck a first deal with the UK and agreed to a temporary pause in so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs with China, greater confidence in Trump’s trade policy seems to be emerging, with market uncertainty in decline.

Although there is some debate on the future of Bitcoin as a ‘safe-haven’ asset, recent price action affirms that Bitcoin remains heavily vulnerable to risk appetite. As things stand, any further developments on global trade, for better or worse, are still likely to weigh heavily on the cryptocurrency.

Following yesterday’s US PPI report, a faster-than-expected cooling of producer price inflation will come as welcome news to Jerome Powell, who cited a potential for tariff-born inflation to justify maintaining rates in the latest Fed decision.

With wholesale prices falling faster than predicted and some progress in Trump’s global trade strategy, the case for future rate cuts grows stronger, especially considering Powell’s justification for maintaining rates at 4.50%, primarily the potential for inflation caused by tariff price increases.

As a non-yielding asset, any suggestion of lower interest rates can be seen as positive for Bitcoin, which traded 1.5% higher in the hours following yesterday’s PPI data. Markets will keenly await future data releases to better understand the Federal Reserve’s next move on June 18th, especially with President Trump’s renewed demand for lower rates.

Despite Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of over $90 million in the last seven days, the overall trend remains positive for Bitcoin.

Cumulatively reaching an all-time high of over $40 billion in inflows, the recent uptick in ETF value suggests further mainstream adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors, with the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund being among the latest to make headlines.

Disclosing a $408 million investment in BlackRock’s $IBIT ETF, Mubadala Investment Co., an Abu Dhabi state-owned investment firm, is now amongst the top 15 holders globally.

• Breaking above the 50-period daily EMA in late April, Bitcoin remains in bullish territory. Trading in a period of consolidation, bulls will likely remain in control unless price breaks below ~$94,153, with the 50-period EMA offering the first level of support

• If able to break consolidation to the upside, bulls will likely target ~$110,667, representing new all-time highs