Asia open: Global markets jolted by US-Iran ceasefire violation, and traders brace for NFP

• Markets rattled by renewed US–Iran tensions: A reported ceasefire violation and exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz abruptly reversed prior peace optimism, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums and driving oil prices back above key $95–$100 levels.
• NFP now collides with stagflation fears: Traders are closely watching the US non-farm payrolls report as strong jobs data combined with surging oil prices could reinforce stagflation concerns and keep the Fed on hold throughout 2026.
• Risk assets turned cautious while safe havens gained: Global equities retreated from record highs, Asian markets reversed lower, and risk-sensitive currencies weakened, while the US dollar held firm on safe-haven demand and gold struggled below key short-term technical resistance near $4,775.
• Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of a minor corrective decline within the medium-term uptrend phase, below 62,795 key short-term resistance.

• US-Iran ceasefire violated: Reuters reports a severe geopolitical escalation as Tehran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire, resulting in a direct exchange of fire involving US naval destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. This shatters yesterday's peace optimism and triggered profit-taking in the US stock market on Thursday, 7 May.
• All eyes on US non-farm payrolls (NFP): Amidst the geopolitical turmoil, traders are bracing for today's critical US NFP report and unemployment rate data to determine the Federal Reserve's next policy move in a highly volatile environment. Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in high odds that the Fed will maintain the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.
• Oil prices violently reversed higher: Following the reports of renewed military engagement and attacks on shipping infrastructure, Brent crude oil immediately reversed up and traded back above the $100/bbl threshold, holding at the 50-day moving average that is acting as a key intermediate support at around $99.80/bbl.
• Equities retreat from record highs: S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.1%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and Russell 2000 (-0.6%). However, a minimal sell-off was observed in the US technology sector, with positive gains reported in mega-caps Nvidia (+1.8%) and Microsoft (+1.7%).

• Geopolitical whiplash: Markets have violently transitioned from a "Geopolitical Dividend" (pricing in peace and normalized trade) back to a maximum "Risk Premium" environment within 24 hours.
• The NFP vs. war tug-of-war: Today's US jobs report is usually the undisputed market driver, but it now competes with live war headlines. A hot NFP print combined with surging oil could create a nightmare scenario for bond markets by reigniting stagflation fears.
• Energy inflation resurrected: The potential breakdown of the ceasefire instantly places long-term global yield curves back under pressure. Central banks cannot easily ignore the inflationary impacts of $100+ crude oil, sustained by active conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transit chokepoint. Interest rate futures markets indicate the ECB and BOJ will likely hike next month, and the BoE and RBNZ in July.

• Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 E-mini futures have managed to recover slightly in today’s early Asian session; +0.2% and +0.3% respectively at this time of writing, as US President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains intact after both sides exchanged fire yesterday.
• Fixed income: US Treasury yields are experiencing extreme volatility. Initial flight-to-safety flows are pushing yields down, but the spectre of surging oil prices threatens to drag long-end yields back up ahead of the NFP release.
• FX: The US Dollar (DXY) spiked on safe-haven flows and held at 97.95 key near-term support that has been in place since 14 April 2026. Risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD retreated by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
• Commodities: WTI and Brent crude rebounded, violently retaking the $95/bbl and $100/bbl handle, respectively. Spot Gold’s rally struggled to break above the $4,775/oz level (also close to the 50-day moving average, where it traded below it since 18 March 2026).

• Stock markets: The anticipated Friday "catch-up rally" in Asian tech was completely derailed. The KOSPI and Nikkei 225 reversed early gains and turned heavily negative with intraday losses of around 1% each as profit-taking activities emerged ahead of the weekend.
• Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost its RBA-driven premium due to waning intraday risk-on appetite, but it remains above its 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.7180/7160 against the USD.
• Economic outlook: Major Asian energy importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and India) may face a dual shock today: evaporating global risk appetite and increasing hawkish monetary policy guidance from developed central bank officials such as the ECB and BoE.

1. Germany Balance of Trade – 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 62K, Mar: 178K) Impact: All asset classes
3. US Unemployment Rate – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Mar: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classes
4. US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) – 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 49.5, Apr: 49.8) Impact: US stock indices, USD
5. Updates US-Iran conflict – awaiting Iran’s response on US’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Impact: All asset classes

After a steep rally from Monday, 4 May 2026, the Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) may stage a potential minor mean reversion decline towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its ascending support after it flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Thursday, 7 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Watch the 62,795 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential minor corrective decline towards the 61,180/60,795 immediate support, and breaking below it exposes 59,970 next (also close to the rising 20-day moving average).

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 62,795 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 64,145 and 65,010/65,040.