Referenced assets
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 1
Today’s April Fool's session extended the more hopeful tone seen across markets, following President Donald Trump’s decisive shift in rhetoric around the US–Iran–Israel conflict.
The issue is that the initial phase of the rebound could now largely be behind us, as uncertainty has clearly eased on the back of renewed diplomatic intent and a more conciliatory tone from Washington.
US Stock benchmarks have rallied close to 5% from their recent lows, breaking above prior month downtrends — a technical improvement that encouraged dip-buyers to step back in.
However, into the close, some profit-taking emerged, suggesting that while sentiment has improved, conviction remains tentative.
The next key leg for markets likely hinges on Crude Oil continuing to retreat from its recent consolidation near $100, reinforcing the disinflationary narrative supporting risk assets.
On the geopolitical front, messaging remains mixed but less aggressive overall. Iranian President Pezeshkian struck a somewhat balanced tone in his latest address, signaling openness while maintaining aggressive positioning – Iran will be the next to decide if it really wants the conflict to end.
The US President will reportedly repeat that the conflict would extend for a few more weeks only in an evening – extending beyond the 5-week and April 6 deadlines, but certainly not a worst-case scenarios like Investors had been pricing in recent weeks.
He is speaking at the White House at 9PM ET.
At the same time, Trump raised concerns among allies by reiterating potential withdrawal from NATO should partners fail to secure the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows.
Attempting to calm tensions, France’s naval leadership indicated that a coordinated post-conflict strategy for the region is actively being developed, but Washington is temperamental and will need to see more.
As we move into the final sessions of the week, markets will need further positive catalysts to sustain this rebound.
The easing in uncertainty has unlocked the first move higher — but a true continuation now depends on credible diplomatic breakthroughs rather than words alone.
Stock Market Heatmap for the Session
Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 1, 2026
Today's session wasn't as lushly green as yesterday's, but the turn compared to last week is now clear.
Manufacturing and Tech are the two leaders of Wall Street action, with the prior particularly sustaining its gains from the third consecutive ISM Manufacturing PMI beat (albeit being a relatively small one).
Tomorrow will once again prove to be an essential test for risk-assets, as traders will need to see more to maintain their excitement.
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Cross-asset performance wasn't as ecstatic as yesterday, but a second consecutive rally will be a sin of persistent advancement in what last week seemed to be the end of the world.
Most risk-assets are up on the day, with Crude and US Dollar tumbling again, but the session is clearly more mixed than yesterday, indicating that the recent bounce is more one of position unrolling rather than full-on buying.
With Passover holidays coming and a huge NFP report on Friday, tomorrow's session might also not be so heroic, but progress is still progress!
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
Currency Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs
Today maintained a more mixed picture in FX compared to yesterday, with the US Dollar slowing its correction at a key level.
(Don't forget to check out our recent DXY charts!)
One key performer of the past few sessions, to keep your eyes on for Forex aficionados, is the GBP, having suffered dramatically in the past weeks but attempting a steep rebound in recent days.
A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Important releases will concern Macro FX traders, including tonight's Trump address, Australian Trade Balance data (which will put the high-performing AUD back on the center stage) and the overnight Swiss Inflation report, key to spot whether the SNB has a clear path ahead to prevent going into negative rate territory.
And don't forget the classic Weekly Jobless Claims in the US.
Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.
Safe Trades and Happy Passover for those who celebrate!
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