Podcast – Gold flash rally to record high, US non-farm payrolls and RBA looms ahead

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data releases, events, and gold’s flash rally on Monday toward a new record high. The short to medium-term dynamics at play for gold given that market expectations have increasingly skewed toward a Fed pivot. Based on CME FedWatch tool calculations, interest rate futures has indicated a significant chance of 57% for the first Fed funds rate cut to come as early as March 2024 FOMC. US non-farm payrolls out for November on Friday (8 Dec)  are likely to indicate softness in the US employment market as the consensus is calling for +185K of jobs added ( below the 1-year average) that may fuel more Fed dovish expectations in 2024.

Australia’s central bank, RBA is likely to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% after a hike of 25 bps last month despite RBA governor’s recent hawkish rhetoric on domestic inflationary pressures in Australia.

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