Yen Surges on Moderate BoJ Stimulus

A moderate stimulus package from the Bank of Japan overnight got the final trading day of the week off to a disappointing start, leaving traders to look towards the large number of earnings and data releases today to pick them up again.

Days like today once again make you question whether the central banks really are reaching the limits of what the markets consider to be effective monetary stimulus tools. With interest rates already negative and government bond purchases at or near the limit of what is feasible, central banks have had to pursue other unconventional tools which have failed to get the markets too excited.

Bank of Japan Under Pressure to Ease

This isn’t necessarily a bad things and just because markets don’t get too excited by the prospect of ETF purchases rising by ¥6 trillion compared to ¥3.3 trillion before, or by a lending program for local companies doubling to $24 billion to provide support for overseas activities, it doesn’t mean they won’t be effective.

The full monetary policy statement from the BoJ can be found here.

Perhaps the days of investors looking to these central banks to provide a quick fix currency depreciation are broadly behind us and a new phase of constructive monetary easing combined with actual fiscal spending is what is needed in order to overcome this low inflation environment. It’s not just Japan that has started down this route, the U.K. is expected to embark on more fiscal stimulus alongside further easing measures and Mario Draghi has repeatedly highlighted the mildly expansionary fiscal stance in the euro area as being supportive alongside the ECBs accommodative position.

BOJ Day –“ Brace Positions Please”

While the markets may not approve – and they certainly don’t at the moment, the yen surged after the announcement and is up 1.6% against the dollar currently – this does strike me as being a more constructive approach to escaping the low global inflationary environment that we have become entrenched in.

It’s going to be a very busy end to the trading week, with a large number of earnings and economic data releases scheduled throughout the day. This evening we’ll also get the results of the bank stress tests in Europe which is likely to make for nasty reading for some banks, with Italian and Spanish banks coming under particular scrutiny.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.