What will the jobs report tell us?
The build-up to the Jackson Hole symposium last week was quite tense. Investors have spent the weeks since the July Federal Reserve meeting celebrating the “dovish pivot” and then in the days leading up to Powell’s speech, doubt started to creep in. As it turned out, for good reason.
Policymakers have spent weeks trying to convince investors that there was no dovish pivot, to no avail. So it was up to Powell to reinforce the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back to target and I think there’s little doubt he did it. There was no room for error and his speech ensured the message was crystal clear.
In referencing other data points, one thing he achieved is intense scrutiny of all incoming US economic data. And next week brings the big one; the jobs report. Investors will no doubt scrutinise every element of it for any indication that the Fed could take its foot off the brake in September. After Powell successfully reset expectations, the coming weeks could be very different from those we’ve just experienced.
Will the US jobs report justify Powell’s stance?
Will eurozone inflation pile pressure on the ECB?
Another surprise from Jordan and the SNB?
The Fed is sticking to the hawkish script and future rate hikes will depend on how quickly inflation eases and the economy weakens. It’s a busy week filled with more Fed speak and key manufacturing and labour market readings. The main event of the week will be the August employment report, but many traders will also pay a lot of attention to how fast manufacturing activity will fall towards contraction territory.
The nonfarm payroll report is expected to show the pace of hiring slowed from a robust July payroll count of 528,000 to 300,000 jobs in August. The ISM manufacturing report is expected to weaken from 52.8 to 52.1, as stockpiles continue to mount for many manufacturers.
Fed speak begins on Monday with Fed’s Brainard. Tuesday we will hear from Barkin and Williams. On Wednesday, Mester will talk about the economic outlook and Bostic will discuss fintech in financial inclusion. Bostic will speak again on Thursday to business school students.
EU
A lot of economic data is due from around the euro area next week with the highlight no doubt being the inflation figures. Initially, this will come from individual countries including Spain and Germany on Tuesday before France releases its number early Wednesday followed by the eurozone as a whole shortly after. This is important as the individual releases offer insight into what we can expect from the bloc as a whole.
Reuters reported Friday that some ECB policymakers want to discuss a 75 basis point rate hike next month which could shift the conversation in that direction between now and then.
Aside from this, we’ll get final manufacturing PMIs, unemployment, retail sales and more. As ever, a lot of focus will remain on the energy situation, in particular Nord Stream 1 maintenance that starts Wednesday and lasts three days. Any hint of delays could cause another surge in gas prices.
UK
A long bank holiday weekend ahead for the UK and people will need it after Ofgem confirmed the energy price cap will rise by 80% in October. If the UK isn’t already in recession, it will be soon.
Light on the data front next week, with the final manufacturing PMI on Thursday the only release of note.
Russia
Next week offers unemployment on Wednesday and the manufacturing PMI on Thursday. Unemployment is expected to rise from 3.9% to 4.1% in July, perhaps a sign of sanctions starting to bite in the labour market. The rouble remains around 20% higher against the dollar compared to before the war in Ukraine.
South Africa
No major economic releases next week. Inflation hit 7.8% last month which leaves the SARB in an uncomfortable position ahead of the next meeting on 22 September, with another 75 basis point hike looking likely.
Turkey
Quarterly GDP is expected to accelerate to 7.5% in the second quarter, even as inflation runs at 80%. President Erdogan will be hoping the fact that the economy is holding up will see him and his party through the election next year. Manufacturing PMI is the only other notable release.
Switzerland
A lot to look forward to next week starting with an appearance by SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan at Jackson Hole on Saturday. The central bank isn’t averse to catching markets off guard so traders will be following his comments with keen interest. There’s plenty of data next week including the KOF indicator on Tuesday and inflation, retail sales and the manufacturing PMI on Thursday.
China
The August manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI will be released on 31 August, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI will be released on 1 September. The recent impact on water and electricity caused by the hot weather in China may have negatively affected the economic data in August, which could lead to some disappointing figures.
India
Next week brings quarterly GDP data for Q1 and the manufacturing PMI for August.
Australia & New Zealand
A selection of data on offer next week with retail sales up first on Monday followed by building approvals Tuesday and the manufacturing PMI on Thursday. A 50 basis point hike at the next RBA meeting is still viewed as likely.
Only tier two and three data on offer from New Zealand next week.
Japan
The divergent attitude of the Fed and the Bank of Japan toward the fundamentals of the rate hike outlook continues to support USD/JPY.
A number of important economic indicators will be released over the next week covering the labour market, industrial output, retail sales and manufacturing. We’ll also hear from BoJ Board Member Junko Nakagawa on Wednesday.
Singapore
The only data release next week is the PMI on Friday.
Economic Calendar
Saturday, Aug. 27
Economic Data/Events
China industrial profits
Last day of the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole
Sunday, Aug. 28
Economic Data/Events
No major events or economic releases
Monday, Aug. 29
Economic Data/Events
Australia retail sales
Japan leading index, coincident index
Sweden GDP
Turkey trade balance, economic confidence
Elon Musk and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expected to speak at the ONS conference
Markets are closed in London due to the UK’s Summer Bank Holiday
ECB Chief Economist Lane and Riksbank Deputy Governor Floden to speak at the Central Bank Research Association’s annual meeting in Barcelona
Tuesday, Aug. 30
Economic Data/Events
US Conference Board consumer confidence
Australia building approvals
Chile unemployment
Czech Republic GDP
Euro Zone economic confidence, consumer confidence
Germany CPI
India Bloomberg economic survey
Japan unemployment
Mexico international reserves, unemployment
Spain CPI
New York Fed President Williams speaks with the Wall Street Journal about the US economic outlook
ECB’s Holzmann, Stournaras, Muller and Wunsch speak about “Inflation: Can Central Banks Cope?” at the Alpbach Forum in Austria
Wednesday, Aug. 31
Economic Data/Events
Russia’s Gazprom to halt gas flows through the key Nord Stream pipeline for three days of maintenance
Australia construction work, private sector credit
Brazil unemployment
Chile industrial production
China PMI
Eurozone CPI
Poland CPI
Canada GDP
Finland GDP
India GDP
Turkey GDP
Germany unemployment
India eight infrastructure industries
Japan industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence index
New Zealand building permits, business confidence
Russia unemployment
Singapore money supply
South Africa trade balance
Thailand trade, BoP, capacity utilization
EIA crude oil inventory report
Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce
Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at the Georgia Fintech Academy about the role of fintech in promoting financial inclusion
Riksbank Deputy Governor Breman speaks at a seminar about the Swedish economy
Thursday, Sept. 1
Economic Data/Events
US construction spending, ISM manufacturing, S&P final manufacturing PMI reading, initial jobless claims
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs
Australia PMIs
India manufacturing PMI
South Africa manufacturing PMI
Thailand manufacturing PMI
UK manufacturing PMI
China Caixin manufacturing PMI
Eurozone unemployment
Germany manufacturing PMI
Hungary GDP, One-Week Deposit Rate
Italy unemployment, GDP
Japan capital spending, vehicle sales, company profits, PMI
New Zealand house prices
Thailand business sentiment index
Friday, Sept. 2
Economic Data/Events
US August change in employment: 300K expected v 528K prior, factory goods, durable goods
Euro Zone PPI
Japan monetary base
Singapore electronics sector index, PMI
Spain unemployment
Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts
The UK leadership ballot closes in the evening with the winner being announced on Sept 5th
Sovereign Rating Updates
Cyprus (S&P)
Spain (DBRS)
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Craig Erlam
His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.
Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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