Trump rattles markets with tariff tweet

Just under 24-hours from the first Fed rate cut in over a decade and President Trump rattled markets with a surprise announcement of a new “small additional tariff of 10% on the remaining $300 billion of goods and products”.

The bond market was already calling for lower yields and Trump’s tariff tweet accelerated the move.  Financial markets remain so uncertain over monetary and political policies and it seems most asset classes are selling off and could see further pressure.  The risks for trade talks blowing has now become the base case for many.  China’s response is eagerly awaited and we will likely see agricultural purchases disappear, the rare earth threat will return and we could see life get harder for American companies in China.

Regarding the Fed, expectations for a rate cut jumped from around 60% for a September rate cut to 96.8%.  The Fed’s concerns on trade were likely confirmed today and we will see an the mid-cycle adjustment become an easing cycle.


The trade war escalation is killing oil prices and falling demand concerns will accelerate in the coming weeks. We are unlikely to see any positive news from the Chinese, so risk aversion is likely to keep the pressure on. Crude prices could see bearish momentum remain after breaking below critical support levels.


Gold was the easy trade for many.  The bullish move took some time to generate, but World War Trade is going to keep safe-havens in demand for quite some time. The Fed is going to cut not for inflation but possibly on the collapse of trade talks.

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.