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Stocks surge on optimism the US-China trade war is nearing an end

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The global equity rally continues to be bolstered by optimism that the trade war could finally see a framework agreement.  The US also avoided a second government shutdown as President Trump accepted the deal lawmakers worked on, only to declare a national emergency to secure additional funds for his border wall funding.

The S&P 500 rose to a 10-week high as trade talks continued to make constructive progress this week and US consumer sentiment showed signs of stabilizing.  The main driver for equities remains the trade story and while global growth concerns are the other key risk, the current backdrop of accommodative stances with the Fed, PBOC, and ECB, may make it difficult to derail the bullish argument.

 

The US dollar continues to whipsaw on risk-off flows from softer US economic data and risk-on moves from continued progress on the trade front.  The Fed has clearly signaled interest rates are not going up anytime soon and we could finally learn more in the coming weeks on when the Fed will end quantitative tightening.  On Thursday, Fed’s Brainard noted that balance sheet normalization could come to an end this year.  Next week, the markets will dissect the Fed’s Minutes on Wednesday and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report on Friday, along from hearing from Fed members (Williams, Clarida, Bullard and Quarles).

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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