Poll Says China Official PMI Likely Slower

Growth in China’s manufacturing sector likely slowed slightly in November as demand remained sluggish, a Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast from 12 economists in the poll was that the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November will be 50.6, slightly lower than October’s 50.8.

The survey will be released on Monday.

A reading above 50-point level indicates an expansion in activity while one below that points to a contraction on a monthly basis.

If the survey shows a slower pace of expansion in November, that may keep investors worried that the Chinese economy, which has stumbled this year, may not recover soon.

Industrial Bank Co. Ltd, in a research note, said consumption only showed good signs at an online “singles’ day” promotion by Alibaba Group Holding on Nov. 11 and steel production fell nearly 10 percent this month as mills near Beijing halted operations for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

Hurt by unsteady exports, a housing downturn and cooling investment growth, the Chinese economy is in danger of missing the government’s growth target of about 7.5 percent this year. Third-quarter growth of 7.3 percent was the weakest since the global financial crisis.

China cut interest rates unexpectedly on Nov. 21, stepping up efforts to support the world’s second-biggest economy as it heads towards its slowest expansion in nearly a quarter of a century, saddled under a mountain of debt.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza