Looking Ahead in Asia

China’s monthly gauges of factory activity and central bank policy decisions in Australia and Japan will be the key events in Asia this week.  On Monday, Beijing will release its official manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for August followed by a separate private reading from HSBC.

The official index is expected to fall to 51.2 from July’s 27-month high of 51.7, according to the median forecast of 13 economists in a Reuters poll.  A preliminary survey released by HSBC and Markit last month showed factory activity falling to a three-month low in August on slowing output and new orders.

“We expect the official PMI to hold up much better than the flash HSBC PMI. With the money market rates back to where they were before the July spike, we expect the dip in the HSBC PMI to be transitory,” said Tim Condon, head of research, Asia, at ING Financial Markets.


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