July: Non-farm payroll (NFP) and CAD Employment Result

• US Jul Non-farm Payrolls +209k vs. +175ke
• US Unemployment falls to +4.3%, 16-Year Low
• US Jun Payrolls Revised to +231k; May Revised to +145k
• US Jul Labor-Force Participation Rate 62.9%

The U.S unemployment rate fell by a tenth to +4.3%, matching May as the lowest level of unemployment in 16 years. It declined despite an expansion in the labor force.

This suggests the growing labor market is slowly drawing more Americans off the sidelines and into the job search, and that employers are hiring many of them.

The number of Americans holding jobs or actively looking for work rose a tenth to +62.9%.

The more important average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m or +2.5% y/y – not stellar, but heading in the Fed’s direction.

The drop in unemployment and wage gains brings the Fed back in play to hike rates again in December.

Treasury’s prices are trading lower while the USD is starting off better bid.

Canada adds +10.9k jobs in July; unemployment rate falls to 9-year low

The Canadian economy added a net +10.9k jobs in July, in line with market expectations.

For the May-to-July period, Canada has added an average +36.9k jobs per month. On a year-over-year basis, Canadian employment has increased +387k, or +2.1%.

Note: Over 90% of the new jobs created over the past 12 months were full-time positions.

Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to +6.3% in July.

Note: When using the U.S Labor Department methodology, Canada’s jobless rate in July was +5.3%.

The Loonie is under pressure vs. the dollar, but performing better on the crosses.

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments.
He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets.
He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head
of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean
has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class
for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best
serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell