Fed, ECB Need to Tackle Latest Threat to Growth: Terrorism

Although they are managing the economies that are at different points within the global business cycle, the Fed and the ECB seem to share the same views of what needs to be done to strengthen demand, output and employment in Europe and in the United States. Both central banks are maintaining a degree of monetary accommodation reflecting the cyclical positions they are currently facing.

The Fed is ahead of the game. Having steadied the economy along a path slightly above its long-term potential, the Fed is now gradually withdrawing excess liquidity without any noticeably adverse effects on money and capital market conditions. In the U.S., bank lending to consumers has accelerated in recent months to an annual rate of nearly 7 percent, while the nonbank consumer lending — which accounts for about two-thirds of the total lending to American households — was exploding in May at an annual rate of 10.6 percent.

The ECB, by contrast, is still struggling to keep the euro area economy afloat. Bank lending to the area’s private sector increased only 1.3 percent in the year to May. Over the same period, the annual growth rates of loans to households and nonfinancial businesses increased 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. That is low, way too low, even though these numbers are showing a string of steady monthly increases.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.