Citi Says US has 65% Chance of Falling into Recession in 2016

U.S. private employers boosted hiring in November, signaling job growth is likely strong enough to support the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike in nearly a decade when policymakers meet later this month.

The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased 217,000 last month on top of the upwardly revised 196,000 jobs added in October. The strong jobs gains suggest solid underlying momentum in the economy despite a struggling manufacturing sector.

“The current pace of job creation is twice that needed to absorb growth in the working age population,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “The economy is fast approaching full employment and will be there no later than next summer.”

The ADP report, which is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, was released ahead of the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report on Friday.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in November. While that would be a step-down from October’s robust 271,000 job gain, it would still be well above the amount needed to keep up with population growth.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza