Chinese Import Export Fair Has Lower Orders Casting Doubt on Future Demand

China’s bellwether import-export trade fair showed a decline in orders year-on-year, indicating that strong external demand which helped buoy growth in the third quarter may not be sustainable in the final three months of the year.

The China Import and Export Fair, popularly known as the Canton Fair, generated 179.2 billion yuan ($29.30 billion), organizers said in a statement on Tuesday, the final day of the event that began on Oct. 15. That’s 8.6 percent less than last fall’s fair after accounting for currency fluctuations.

The twice-yearly event is China’s biggest trade exhibition and is seen as a forward indicator of demand for the country’s exports.

 
The importance of the fair has declined as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to shift away from exports and manufacturing toward consumption and services to find new drivers of growth.

Despite the desire to pivot away from trade, analysts said strong export growth contributed significantly to China’s 7.3 percent growth in the third quarter from a year earlier, beating expectations of 7.2 percent.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza