British Chamber of Commerce Cuts UK Economic Growth Forecast

The British Chambers of Commerce has cut its UK economic growth forecasts, blaming a weaker-than-expected trade and manufacturing performance.

The business lobby group has cut its growth forecast for this year to 2.4% from 2.6%.

In addition, it has has lowered its forecast for both 2016 and 2017 to 2.5% from 2.7%.

It said the manufacturing sector, which it expects to contract this year, had been hit by “falling global prospects”.

“Our persistently weak trade performance and current account balance are impacting our overall growth,” the BCC’s director general John Longworth said.

Slowing growth in the third quarter contributed to the downgrade, the BCC said.

In November, official figures showed the UK grew by 0.5% between July and September, marking a slowdown from the 0.7% rate in the second quarter.

Mr Longworth warned there was “still a long way to go” before the UK recovery was complete.

The BCC also cut its growth forecast for the dominant services sector – which accounts for more than 70% of GDP – and said the UK could not “rely so heavily on consumer spending to fuel our economy”.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Longworth said growth in the UK was being fuelled by debt, which was behind rising consumer spending and asset prices, in particular housing.

“If it’s based on debt you then lead to a boom-and-bust cycle again,” he told BBC Radio 5 live’s Wake Up To Money programme.

via BBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency
trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza