This will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early 2021. The September jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed from a 187,000 pace to 170,000. Despite the loosening of the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wage pressures are expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% to a 0.3% pace.
The Fed will be making the rounds as nine members make appearances. On Monday, Chair Powell and Harker take part in a roundtable talk with business owners and community leaders in Pennsylvania. Williams and Mester also speak at separate events on Monday. Tuesday contains one speech by Bostic. On Wednesday, Bowman speaks at a banking conference and Goolsbee appears at the Chicago Payments Symposium. On Thursday, Mester talks at the Chicago Payments event and Daly speaks at the Economic Club of NY.
There’s very little of note next week, just a collection of tier two and three economic releases, the bulk of which being final PMIs. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also make an appearance which will be of interest in light of the September inflation data.
Another quiet week for the UK, with tier-three economic data dominating. There are some BoE appearances but broadly speaking and barring any surprises, next week is not expected to be one for the record books.
A very quiet week with just the manufacturing and services PMI surveys being released.
No major economic releases or events next week with only the whole economy PMI of note alongside a few tier-three releases.
Inflation data will be of interest next week although at this point it may not have a big impact on the outlook for interest rates. At around 60% and with the lira at record lows, further large hikes will likely be necessary, regardless.
The SNB likely ended its tightening cycle with an attempted hawkish hold in September but as is the case with other central banks, that will depend on the data. With that in mind, there are a few economic releases of note this coming week. The September CPI number is the most obvious, while unemployment, retail sales, and the manufacturing PMI will also be of interest.
Key manufacturing and services PMI data for September will be released over the weekend before China’s financial markets are shut for the Golden Week holiday starting next Monday, 2 October.
The NBS manufacturing & services PMIs will be out on Saturday, 30 September. After better-than-expected prior PMI numbers as well as retail sales and industrial production for August, market participants will be scrutinizing the September PMI data for further hints of an easing of deflationary spiral risk.
The consensus is expecting a slight recovery to 50 (expansion mode) for manufacturing activities from 49.7 in August. Also of interest will be the sub-components such as new orders and production that rose to their highest level since March 2023 at 50.2 and 51.9 respectively in August. Services activities as measured by the NBS non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted to improve further to 52 from 51 in August.
The private sector compiled Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs for September consisting of more small and medium enterprises will be released on Sunday. A further improvement is expected here as well with the manufacturing PMI seen at 51.2 versus 51 previously, and the services PMI at 52.6 versus 51.8 a month earlier.
The manufacturing PMI for September will be released on Tuesday and is expected to dip to 57 from 58.6 in August. In addition, the services PMI is released on Thursday is expected to ease as well to 59 from 60.1 in August. That would be the second consecutive month of growth slowdown after a 13-year high of 62.3 printed in July.
On Friday, India’s central bank, the RBI will announce its monetary policy decision; the consensus is no change at 6.5% for its policy rate which would be the fourth consecutive month of standing pat.
After an uptick in the CPI to 5.2% in the year to August from 4.9% (the lowest level in 17 months), market participants will now focus on the Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge for September on Monday. It is expected to increase to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% in August.
On Tuesday, it’s the RBA monetary policy decision with the consensus expecting no change to its policy cash rate at 4.1%, extending its rate pause to a fourth consecutive month. Based on the pricing on the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures as of 28 September, there’s a 7% chance of a 25 basis points cut to 3.85%, the same as a week earlier.
The balance of trade data for August will be out on Thursday with the trade surplus expected to widen to A$9 billion from A$8.04 billion in July.
The RBNZ’s monetary policy decision will be released on Wednesday and no change is expected to its official cash rate at 5.5%. That would be the third consecutive month of no change due to a weak external demand environment that could hamper exports.
On Monday, the Q3 Tankan large manufacturers and non-manufacturing indices will be released. The sentiment for large manufacturers is expected to improve further to +6 from + 5 in Q2. In a similar fashion, the mood of the large non-manufacturers is expected to rise to +24 from +23 in Q2.
Data on household spending, average cash earnings, and the preliminary reading of the leading economic index for August will be released on Friday. In the recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ex-post monetary policy decision press conference, Governor Ueda specifically mentioned that growth in wages needs to see further improvement before annualized inflation can maintain a sustainable rate above 2%.
Therefore, the average cash earnings data is likely to be closely watched and is forecasted to dip slightly to 1.2% y/y in August from 1.3% in July.
Two key data to focus on; the preliminary Q3 URA Property Index on Monday and retail sales on Thursday.
A further deceleration is expected in retail sales to 0.8% y/y in August from 1.1% in July. That would mark the weakest growth since January 2023.
Saturday, Sept. 30
China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
US Congress deadline to pass a federal spending measure
Helsinki Security Forum continues
Sunday, Oct. 1
China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Caixin services PMI
US government shutdown to start if funding lapses
UK Conservative Party Conference begins
Monday, Oct. 2
US construction spending, ISM manufacturing
Australia Melbourne Institute inflation
European final manufacturing PMI: Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK
Japan Tankan business sentiment survey
New Zealand building permits
Singapore home prices
Bank of Japan releases report on September monetary policy meeting
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a roundtable discussion with workers, small business owners and community leaders in York, Pennsylvania
Fed’s Mester speaks on economic outlook at the 50 Club of Cleveland monthly meeting
Fed’s Williams speaks at 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference
ECB’s Centeno and de Cos speak at conference on financial stability at the Bank of Portugal
BOE’s Mann speaks at Redburn/Rothschild Event
Annual Adipec conference starts in Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, Oct. 3
Australia building approvals
RBA rate decision: Bullock’s first meeting as governor; expected to keep rates steady at 4.10%
India manufacturing PMI
Mexico international reserves
US light vehicle sales
Fed’s Bostic speaks on the economic outlook at Leadership Atlanta’s alumni roundtable
ECB’s Šimkus and chief economist Lane speak at Lithuania’s central bank conference
Wednesday, Oct. 4
US factory orders, ADP employment
Eurozone services PMI, retail sales, PPI
New Zealand rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 5.50%
Poland rate decision: Expected to cut rates
ECB monetary policy conference in Frankfurt with President Lagarde, de Guindos, and Panetta
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at his bank’s annual payments symposium
Fed’s Bowman speaks at community banking research conference at the St. Louis Fed
Thursday, Oct. 5
US trade, initial jobless claims
France industrial production
Singapore retail sales
Spain industrial production
Third meeting of the European Political Community in Spain
Fed’s Daly speaks at the Economic Club of New York
Fed’s Mester speaks at Chicago Fed’s annual payments symposium
ECB’s de Guindos chairs keynote speech session at monetary policy conference
BOE deputy governor Broadbent speaks on a panel at the ECB conference
APAC Family Office Investment Summit starts
Friday, Oct. 6
US September Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 170Ke, vs 187K prior; Unemployment Rate: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior; Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
Germany factory orders
India rate decision: Expected to keep repurchase rate steady at 6.50%
Japan household spending
Informal meeting of EU heads of state or government in Spain
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