AUD/USD extends gains, RBA minutes next

• Australian dollar rises to 13-week high

The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week.

Investors eye RBA minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn’t much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point to 4.35%, but the Australian dollar dropped sharply in the aftermath, which is an unusual move after a rate hike. Investors jumped all over the language of the rate statement, which suggested that the bar had risen for an additional rate hike. Interestingly, the statement also warned that inflation was “too high” and the “risk of inflation remaining higher has increased”, but investors ignored this hawkish assessment.

The RBA minutes may provide more clarity on whether rates have peaked. The markets are betting that the tightening cycle is over, but if the minutes signal that rates could go up, the Australian dollar could get a boost. As for 2024, the markets are expecting a rate cut, but the RBA is still trying to convince the markets that rate hikes are on the table and it isn’t discussing trimming rates.

Just a month ago, 10-year US Treasuries were trading at 4.98%, but have fallen to 4.44% at present. The lower yields have made US Treasuries less attractive and the US dollar has fallen against the majors recently, including the Australian dollar.

The FOMC minutes will be released on Tuesday and the markets will be combing through, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Despite the Fed insisting that rate hikes remain on the table, the markets are confident that Fed policy will be less restrictive in the first half of 2024. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 100% likelihood of a pause in December, with a 30% chance of a rate cut in March 2024, followed by a 64% chance in May.

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AUD/USD Technical

•  There is resistance at 0.6587 and at 0.6600
• 0.6470 and 0.6397 are providing support

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