- Will the Fed leave the door open to another hike?
- Dot plot key for expectations
- Gold nears key resistance ahead of decision
The Fed meeting today is widely expected to end in an agreement not to hike interest rates this month with the key takeaway being whether they intend to again in this cycle.
The ECB strongly hinted that it is probably done last week but I’m not convinced we’ll get the same signal from the Fed and neither, it would appear, are markets.
We have seen the odds of another hike creeping up a little recently amid more resilience in the economy which will likely make the central bank a little apprehensive about declaring victory or even suggesting they believe they’ve done enough.
If they are so bold as to follow in the footsteps of the ECB, it will be interesting to see what that does to yields and the dollar.
Rebound stalls ahead of the Fed
The gold rebound had stalled over the last couple of sessions but it is edging higher again today going into the announcement.
Source – OANDA on Trading View
The yellow metal is trading at the highest level since the start of the month which is quite a bullish move in the hours leading up to the decision. Perhaps it’s a sign that markets are expecting a dovish Fed.
It’s struggling around $1,950 which is around the previous high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level – July highs to August lows. A break above here could be quite a bullish move, especially if backed by a dovish Fed announcement.
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