Gold – Record highs on the way?

Pullback may be brief

Gold came within a whisker of record highs on Tuesday and it may not be done there.

The yellow metal is a traditional safe haven and inflation hedge, which makes it perfect in highly uncertain times like this. Not only is the world already desperately trying to get to grips with high inflation, it’s also facing the prospect of an economic slowdown and maybe even recession.

Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine will have severe consequences, not just for Russia – although the sanctions imposed on it will be a hammer blow to the economy – but the rest of the world also, as commodity prices from oil and gas to palladium, nickel, and wheat sky-rocket. No country is insulated.

Gold’s rally has been relentless, gaining more than 16% in a little over a month and it’s hard to know when it will stop. In the absence of a ceasefire in Ukraine and withdrawal of Russian troops, the uncertainty around commodity prices and sanctions could see money continue to pile into it.

We have seen a bit of a pullback since falling just short of the highs and it saw some support around 2,022 (interestingly) around the top of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart.

A move below here could see 2,000 tested which would be a major psychological test, not to mention the first test of yesterday’s highs. A rebound off here would be a strong breakout confirmation and could propel it higher.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam