USD/CAD eyes retail sales

The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3466 in the European session. We could see some volatility in the North American session, as Canada releases retail sales.

Retail sales expected to decline

The markets are bracing for a downturn in retail sales for November, with a forecast of -0.5% m/m for the headline figure and -0.4% for the core rate. This follows a strong report in October, as the headline reading was 1.4% and core retail sales at 1.7%. If the releases are as expected or lower, it could be a rough day for the Canadian dollar.

Today’s retail sales release is the final major event prior to the Bank of Canada’s meeting on January 25th. The markets have priced in a 25-bp increase, but a hold is also a possibility, especially with December inflation falling to 6.3%, down from 6.8%.

The BoC has raised rates by some 400 basis points in the current rate-tightening cycle, which began in March 2022. Similar to the market outlook on the Fed’s rate policy, there is significant speculation that the BoC could wind up its tightening at the first meeting of 2023 and then keep rates on hold.

The BoC has said that future hikes will be determined by economic data, and there are signs of strength in the economy despite the Bank’s aggressive rate policy. GDP expanded by 2.9% in Q3 which was stronger than expected and job growth sparkled in December, with over 100,000 new jobs. The markets will be looking for clues about future rate policy from the rate statement and BoC Governor Macklem post-meeting comments.

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USD/CAD Technical

  • 1.3455 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3328
  • 1.3582 and 1.3707 are the next resistance lines

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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