Oil under pressure, gold eyes PPI

Will $70 be a floor in oil?

There’s been a lot to absorb for oil traders over the last week, some of which have created more questions than answers. The trade data from China was obviously another blow as it pointed to weakening global demand, as has become the norm from manufacturing and trade data around the world recently.

But at the same time, the country is finally navigating away from zero-Covid, a policy that’s often this year been a counter-force against the slow re-introduction of OPEC+ crude and the war in Ukraine. Now, with the balance in the market seemingly tilted towards oversupply, the reopening of China could prove supportive of the crude price. ​ ​

Ultimately, the movements in oil markets depend on multiple moving parts which is why we’re seeing so much volatility but the trend has been negative for a number of weeks. The question is how much weaker it will get before OPEC+ steps in once more. Of course, the Biden administration has indicated it could start purchasing crude for the SPR when the price falls to $70 a barrel, which could provide at least a temporary floor.

An eye on PPI

Gold traders clearly already have an eye on Friday’s US PPI report after the jobs report setback. While a good PPI number won’t heal all wounds, it could provide further evidence that inflation is cooling and allow for a less hawkish Fed next week.

The yellow metal peaked around $1,810 last week and is now consolidating in the $1,760-1,780 range. There’s clearly still plenty of bullish appetite there but there will be setbacks along the way, as we’re seeing now. The PPI could potentially be another. A break below $1,760 could see a bigger correction, with the next big level of support coming around $1,730 which has been very significant in recent months.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

Latest posts by Craig Erlam (see all)