OPEC+ delivers, gold pares this week’s gains

OPEC+ agrees to cut production

OPEC+ agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels a day. OPEC+ is keeping the oil market tight with the biggest output cut since 2020. ​ The production cut was driven by uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks. The OPEC+ target is now 10.5 million bpd, which according to the Saudis is a real cut between 1 to 1.1 million bpd. ​ The next ministerial meeting will be on December 4th. ​ The plan is now for them to have ministerial meetings every six months and the monthly JMMC meetings will now happen every two months.

The EIA crude oil inventory showed crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories continue to fall. ​ This report was mostly bullish given a headline draw, rebound in gasoline demand, steady production, and steady exports above 4 million barrels a day.

Oil should remain supported here following the OPEC+ decision and the EIA report, but the upside will be capped well in advance of the $100 a barrel level. ​

After the OPEC+ meeting, Russia’s Novak said it could cut output if an oil price cap is put in place. Novak is signaling that Russia is not desperate for revenues and if this cap moves forward, we could see oil prices extend gains. ​ ​

Gold

Gold prices edged lower after the bond market said not so fast with the collapse of global bond rates. ​ A strong private payrolls report reminded investors that there is still strength in the labor market that could allow the Fed to remain aggressive beyond the next two FOMC meetings.

Gold needs to see a sharper slowdown in the US and cooler prices for a bullish breakout to form. Gold seems poised to consolidate between $1680 and $1740 until we get both the NFP report and the latest inflation readings.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya