The ship has sailed

Stock markets staged a surprisingly good recovery following the inflation data on Wednesday but that wasn’t enough to stop them from ending the day in the red or starting today in a similar position.

Recession fears have fully gripped the markets and central banks are left with little alternative but to tighten aggressively into it. The CPI data yesterday was the latest in a long list of disappointing releases from the US and the result is that it’s now a coin toss between a 75 and 100 basis points hike in two weeks.

The Bank of Canada made the leap into triple-digit hikes shortly after the US CPI release, acknowledging in the process that it had underestimated inflation since spring last year. They aren’t alone in that and now central banks are queueing up to hike aggressively in a desperate attempt to get it back under control and limit the shock to the economy.

Investors are clearly now of the view that the ship has sailed on that and the job now is ensuring any recession is shallow and brief. The expectation now is that the Fed will hike aggressively before reversing course in the middle of next year in order to stimulate the economy out of recession. Even that is looking optimistic at this point.

Still hard to make a bullish case for bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to hold on surprisingly well under the circumstances. Widespread risk aversion, higher inflation and interest rates, a stronger dollar and negative crypto headlines – Celsius has filed for bankruptcy – would ordinarily hit the price hard but it’s showing remarkable resilience.

Whether it can continue to swim against the tide, I’m not so sure. What we’re seeing is impressive but I struggle to see the case for bitcoin having bottomed. Time will tell.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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