Recovery continues despite disappointing data

The stock market recovery continues on Wednesday, despite a selection of disappointing data releases from Europe and the US.

We’ve seen a decent rebound off the January lows and that only appears to have accelerated this week which will come as a huge relief to investors after a rather turbulent start to the year. And coming at a time when so many rate hikes are now priced in for a variety of central banks, it’s possible that peak-tightening fear is behind us.

There is still potential, of course, for further action to be priced in but whether that will happen in the near term, or generate the same kind of anxiety, may depend on where it comes and to what degree.

ECB unlikely to dramatically change course despite high inflation  

We’re seeing rate hike expectations rising in the euro area, for example, despite the continued pushback at such action by the central bank in recent meetings. We’ve seen this happen repeatedly though and eventually, the central bank seems to reluctantly follow.

With inflation in the eurozone hitting 5.1% in January, well above market expectations, will we see a similar pattern when the ECB meets tomorrow? In the absence of fresh economic projections, I expect we won’t see any dramatic shifts tomorrow but we could see slight tweaks in the tone and language that pave the way for something more significant in March.

ADP brushed aside as omicron takes its toll in January

So much is already priced in for US interest rates and it’s hard to imagine the direction of travel changing in the near term, given the broad range of indicators continuing to point to higher price pressures. That’s particularly true of data like the ADP collected for January, at a time when omicron caused major distortions which reduces its usefulness. Expectations for Friday’s jobs report are already very low and today’s ADP may reduce them further but it doesn’t really change the outlook for interest rates or the economy.

Profit-taking at USD 40,000 a concern?

Bitcoin’s rebound has been encouraging over the last week or so but it’s so far failed to recapture USD 40,000 which may cause some discomfort among those hoping the low is behind it. The improvement in risk appetite in the broader markets is naturally supporting the price and could ultimately be what drives it through this important resistance level, as long as it holds. But we appear to be seeing some profit-taking around here which is contributing to the 4% decline today.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam