A rollercoaster ride

A rollercoaster start to the week and one that seemingly tells us so much about the markets right now.

On the one hand, there is a growing list of things to be concerned about as we move into the final quarter of the year. Evergrande has been front and centre in recent days as the market tries to determine if we’re facing another Lehman moment, a massive bailout or something more creative.

Considering how markets are bouncing back today, the view in the markets suggests it’s not the former, although it certainly made for interesting reading on Monday. Of course, markets aren’t always right, we don’t have to look too hard to find examples of that. But it does say something about investors’ mentality in these unusual times.

It seems investors are going to be left to sweat on the outcome of the Evergrande saga. A bailout seemingly goes against everything the Chinese leadership has been striving for. A collapse would be a bold move that could have severe ramifications, for those responsible and those not.

The ripple effects could be huge, not to mention the hit to the property market and the broader economy. This is why option three looks the most likely at this point. What form it will take and when it will come is harder to predict.

And this is only one of many risks that investors are contending with at the moment. Part of what has made them so nervous in the first place is the event taking place today and tomorrow, the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. A misstep from the central bank tomorrow could have a greater impact than what we’ve seen in recent days.

The likelihood is that Jerome Powell is going to explain that the plan is still to taper this year but it’s going to be accompanied by so many dovish caveats that investors will remain on board. The central bank buys itself a couple more months while leaving the door open to changing course if the situation warrants it. A sensible approach, all things considered.

Of course, the Fed is one of the numerous central banks meeting this week, many of which are also considering their exit strategies in the face of strong economic recoveries, high inflation and numerous headwinds. Without the potential benefit of persistently low inflation – most still expect it to be much lower over the next couple of years – central banks may have a real job on their hands steering us out of this crisis. That may be what investors are most fearful of.

Bitcoin in correction mode?

Bitcoin isn’t acting like much of a safe haven either, sliding at the start of the week before finding some support just above USD 40,000. This may have seen bitcoin move into a correction phase, with recent support appearing to have finally given way.

A break below USD 40,000 could see the move accelerate to the downside, with the first big test coming around USD 36,000-37,000. Below that, the support region between May and July comes back into focus. Maybe we’ll hear more from every crypto-enthusiasts pal, Elon Musk soon.

One thing is clear, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele doesn’t quite have the influence of the Tesla CEO. Bukele has gone from bitcoin advocate to speculator and advisor, with the backing of the country’s limited funds, bizarrely claiming that “they can never beat you if you buy the dips”, “presidential advice”. What can possibly go wrong?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam