Oil pares gains, gold plummets ahead of Fed

Oil sees profit taking at summer highs

Oil is pulling back a little on Thursday after enjoying another strong rally in recent days. Hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast in recent weeks have disrupted production in the region which has given a boost to prices. And with two more months of Hurricane season remaining, more disruption could follow.

Inventory data from EIA gave prices another lift on Wednesday, with WTI and Brent also rallying ahead of the release after API also reported a large drawdown a day earlier. With prices now back around summer highs, we are seeing some profit taking kicking in but the rally continues to look well supported.

WTI fell a little short of its summer highs around $75, stumbling around $73, while Brent saw resistance around $76. A break through these levels could see the rally gather even more momentum. If we do see a small pullback, the first test of support could come around $70 in WTI, where it had previously seen resistance.

Tough times ahead for gold?

Gold has fallen out of favour and fast, with the yellow metal slipping more than 1.5% today and below a key support level. This comes only a couple of days after it broke back above $1,800 on the back of softer US inflation data but that celebration was short-lived and it’s suddenly looking rather vulnerable.

From a technical perspective, $1,780 marked the neckline of a head and shoulders that formed over the last month, peaking at $1,833. The next major test below could come around $1,750 but further downside could be on the cards.

The fact that this has come ahead of the Fed meeting doesn’t bode well for the yellow metal. Recent data has given the Fed room to be more patient with tapering but the commentary we had late last week from officials suggested many aren’t discouraged. Gold could feel the love once more should policymakers change course next Wednesday but it could be a long week for the yellow metal in the interim.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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