Oil rise continues, gold range trades

Oil rises in Asia after an overnight hit

Although official US Crude Inventories fell by a much larger 8 million barrels overnight, the US API data seems to have telegraphed the move. As such, it appears to have been priced in, and with gasoline stocks not falling by as much as expected, long positions were squeezed out. That sent Brent crude 1.35% lower to USD68.50 a barrel, with WTI falling 1.30% to USD65.25 a barrel.

Prices have abruptly reversed in Asia, and it seems that the return of China and Japan from holiday has seen buyers in both countries sending prices higher. Brent crude has added 0.80% to USD69.05 a barrel, and WTI has added 0.45% to USD65.70 a barrel.

Despite the Asian buying, both contracts are marking time, albeit with a bias to the upside. Choppy range trading has been the week’s theme, and we are likely to continue until the US data tomorrow. Brent crude remains comfortably above support at USD68.00 a barrel with resistance at USD70.00 and USD71.00 a barrel. WTI has support at USD63.00 a barrel with resistance at USD66.50 a barrel. It remains comfortably in its rising parallel channel that extends back to the start of April.

The price action suggests that oil is a buy on dips, with both contracts consolidating at the top of their weekly ranges. A strong print from the Non-Farm Payrolls should be enough to restore the recovery narrative after a few US data wobbles this week.

Gold continues to range trade

Gold has highlighted the dangers of getting bullish at the top, and bearish at the bottom this week. It’s clearly denoted support at USD1760.00 an ounce and resistance at USD1800.00 has proven impervious to directional breaks.

Gold rose to USD1787.00 an ounce overnight, advancing to USD1788.50 an ounce in tepid Asian trading. Nevertheless, the support and resistance levels must be respected as this week’s price action has unceremoniously highlighted.

Gold will likely stage a breakout one way or the other post the US Non-Farm Payrolls. The topside is more likely to capitulate as predictions of a one million-plus jobs added has become a very crowded trade. An on-expectation release could see both US yields and the US dollar head lower, lifting gold through USD1800.00 an ounce.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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