US Dollar creeps higher pre-FOMC

US yields give the dollar a slight boost

The US dollar advanced unevenly overnight, as positioning gets rejigged ahead of the FOMC meeting, with short US dollar exposure being trimmed. US 10-year and 30-year yields rose notably overnight for much the same reason, which supported greenback gains. The dollar index rose just 0.05% to 90.89. although the rally has accelerated in Asia, increasing 0.11% to 90.98.

The rise in the dollar index overnight can mainly be attributed to a fall in the Japanese yen, with other index heavyweights such as the euro and sterling almost unchanged. After a dovish BoJ yesterday, the rise in US yields overnight had an immediate impact on USD/JPY, highlighting how sensitive the pair is to the interest rate differential. USD/JPY rose 0.60% to 108.60 overnight, advancing to 108.90 in Asia. USD/JPY has traced out a bottom at 107.50, and a break of 109.00 could see the pair advance to 110.00 once again. Much will depend on the wording of the FOMC statement.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD has fallen 0.35% to 0.7740 today, unwinding its overnight gains after weak inflation data this morning. AUD/USD has strong support at 0.7700, which includes its 100-day moving average (DMA). It is unlikely to be seriously tested unless the FOMC surprises, and I expect advances by AUD/USD and NZD/USD to resume after the meeting.

Notably, the Malaysian ringgit has outperformed this week, boosted by Brent crude holding around USD65.00 a barrel, and in anticipation of impressive export data today. USD/MYR is trading at 6.1000 this morning, having traced out a double bottom at 4.0965 overnight. If MYR strengthens through 4.0965 today, USD/MYR could be on track to retrace the rest of its March losses, with USD/MYR targeting 4.0700 in the first instance.

The US dollar has advanced versus both G-10 and regional Asian currencies this morning despite the PBOC setting a firmer CNY fix at 6.4853. Without sounding like a broken record, I regard the greenback strength as transitory and reflecting a reduction in short-dollar risk exposure ahead of the FOMC. Regular service should resume tomorrow, assuming the meeting passes without drama.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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