Commodities and Cryptos: Oil’s strong week, Gold shines, Bitcoin drops on Turkey ban

Oil

Crude prices gave back some of this week’s gains on COVID vaccine shortfalls and concerns that India’s Covid-19 surge is increasing the risks of creating new variants.  J&J vaccine pause and Moderna’s announcement that they will fall short of their vaccine delivery targets for the UK and Canada is a temporary setback for the short-term crude demand outlook.   The J&J clot issue is delaying a key single dose and easily stored vaccine solution.  An abundance of caution could mean we lose a week or two with the J&J vaccine, with some fearing that it will fuel greater vaccine hesitancy given the recent concerns with the AstraZeneca one. 

WTI crude is still poised to continue to rise higher on an improving crude demand outlook and expectations that both US and OPEC+ output will gradually increase over the coming months. 

Gold

Gold got its mojo back after Treasury yields retreated below key technical levels and China greenlighted banks to hold more gold imports.  Today is a great day for gold as its strength is accompanied with modest dollar weakness and a softer Bitcoin.  Gold’s bullish case is here as Wall Street awaits to see what type of inflation unfolds over the next several months.  Treasury yields will eventually grind higher, but now investors can become more upbeat on gold. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin stumbled after Turkey’s central bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies and crypto assets for purchases.  Turkey’s crypto market was rapidly growing as everyone wanted to abandon holding liras.  The outlook for the Turkish lira is for further pain and that is why the central bank is coming down on cryptocurrencies.  Turkish capital controls and further restrictions on lira movement is a regional story and should not pose a greater risk for Bitcoin. 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya