Oil rebounds, gold recovers after retreat

Oil reverses New York losses

The US dollar strength seen on Friday in New York was enough of an excuse for traders to lock in some profits on long oil positions. Both contracts easing slightly on Wall Street. Brent crude fell 0.55% to USD69.10 a barrel, and WTI retreated by 0.50% to USD65.60 a barrel in what was a quiet session by recent standards.

Asian markets have been in buy-the-dip mode, though, with both contracts rising today, unwinding Friday’s losses. Both have advanced 1.05% to USD69.90 and USD66.25 a barrel, respectively.

Brent crude remains on target to retest USD71.50 a barrel and WTI USD68.00 a barrel, possibly this week. Futures spreads remain in backwardation, and dips in prices remain shallow and short-lived. Brent crude has support at USD68.00 a barrel, and WTI has support at USD63.00 a barrel. Both will find a procession of willing buyers if those regions are visited.

 

Is gold finally bottoming?

Gold spiked at low as USD1700.00 an ounce on Friday after US bond yields exploded higher. Intriguingly, it rallied back just as hard, despite US yields remaining firm, and actually recorded a modest gain of 0.25%, or USD1727.00 an ounce, for the day.

This is the first time in recent memory that I can recall gold not wilting in the face of such moves and behaving like the inflation hedge that so many of us expect it to be. Gold is unchanged in dull Asian trading, and if it is yet early days, but gold’s price action from here deserves to be closely monitored and could be hinting that a material bottom has formed.

Gold has support at Friday’s low of USD1700.00 an ounce, with resistance at USD1740.00 an ounce, followed by the USD1760.00 an ounce Fibonacci break-out. Gold’s relative strength index is comfortably in neutral territory, giving the yellow metal plenty of room to manoeuvre as well. If US yields push higher this week and gold at least holds at these levels, the case for a material rally will become compelling.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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