US dollar squeeze continues

US dollar edges higher after a strong overnight session

The greenback continued to remorselessly squeeze months-worth of US dollar shorts overnight, propelled by an equally remorseless grind higher in US yields. The dollar index climbed 0.41% to 90.47, edging higher to 90.51 in Asia. The index’s next target will be the 91.00 regions, with capitulation opening further gains to 92.00.

Much the same story is playing out in the G-10 space. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD have all suffered downside breakouts, with the technical picture suggesting more losses ahead. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8920, the site of four daily tops in the past month. A break of 0.8920 targets further gains to the 0.9050 regions.

Confirmation of further US gains will likely arrive from USD/JPY. At 104.20, it is within shouting distance of its 6-month downtrend line, today at 104.55. That is followed by the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 104.75. A daily close above the latter signalling an advance that could stretch as far as 107.00.

Although the Chinese yuan continues to hold firm around 6.4600 to the dollar, some warning signs are being signalled elsewhere. USD/THB is threatening resistance at 30.250, and USD/IDR rose 1.50% yesterday to 14,200.00. USD/SGD moved through trendline resistance yesterday at 1.3275, climbing to 1.3300 this morning. Dollar strength combined with Covid-19 restrictions and the Malaysian King’s State of Emergency declaration saw USD/MYR burst through two-month resistance at 4.0300 yesterday. USD/MYR has since risen to 4.0600 today. That signals further gains to 4.0700 and 4.1000 initially.

The yuan is now appreciating on a TWI basis versus much of the G-10 and regional Asian currencies. It will be interesting to see the tolerance of the PBOC to that situation. Some Asian currencies are signalling weakness ahead, and a sudden jump in the PBOC USD/CNY fixes will accelerate that trend. The PBOC’s hand will likely not turn on a one-week dollar rally, but that outlook might change if the situation persists.

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