Flying Too Close to The Sun

It would appear that Jack (Icarus) Ma did just that with the Chinese Government and banking regulators last night, as Ant Financial’s IPO was pulled in Shanghai and Hong Kong. China’s government appears to disagree with Mr Ma’s assertion the Ant Financial is a tech company and not a financial one. His comments on the Basle capital regulations clearly didn’t resonate in the halls of power in Beijing, and today Mr Ma is less wealthy after Ali Baba stock was pummelled overnight. There’s only one big boss in China, and it’s not Jack Ma.

All eyes on US election

In other news, the US election polls are starting to close on the Eastern seaboard. All eyes are on Florida initially as the mother of all swing states. A win for Joe Biden almost certainly unlocks the doors of the White House. A win by President Trump keeps him in the race. That is, of course, if the polls are accurate.

I will be watching the US Senate race more closely, as the monstrous blue wave trade that financial markets have spent filling their boots with over the last 24 hours is predicated on that. The oddity that is Georgia’s voting system will be my first port of call, and we should get those preliminary results quite early this morning. Georgia is an oddity in that if there is no clear winner, its Senate seats will be decided in a run-off election, in January. With the Senate race so tight, a nebulous result could see a reassessment of the blue wave.

As results roll in across the Asian morning, we should know where we stand by midday Singapore time. By that I mean we will know whether there is a clear winner, or whether we are skimming the event horizon of a contested election for the presidency or the Senate. The former, no matter who wins the presidency, will probably be positive for equity markets. The latter is likely to be not. Such has been the momentum of the buy everything trades over the last 24 hours; the correction lower could be emotional.

The morning will be noisy; investors would be well advised to watch the show with everything but Yul Brunner – he was an actor for my millennial readers – from the side-lines. Enjoy the TV coverage, preserve capital.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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