The US dollar edges lower

The US dollar index edged 0.10% lower overnight with EUR/USD edging lower, but GBP/USD outperforming on Eurozone trade hopes, and USD/JPY giving back some recent gains. With plenty of heavyweight US data to come, as well as the possibility of a new fiscal stimulus package from Washington DC, the best of the US dollar rally may now be behind us.

The narrow ranges seen overnight have left the G-10 space in range-trading mode versus the greenback. With China away, Asian currency trading has been muted, and we expect that tone to prevail for the remainder of the session.

There are a host of releases out of the US on Thursday, including personal consumption expenditure, initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Unemployment claims, which are released on a weekly basis, are expected to remain steady around 850,000 and 12.6 million respectively. On the manufacturing front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected to hold steady 56.0, comfortably in expansionary territory. The data will suggest that the US recovery remains on track, although gains may be stalling.

Investors eye fiscal package talks, Nonfarm Payrolls

The massive fiscal stimulus package remains stuck in Congress, but there are hopes that the talks between US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi will lead to an announcement of a deal.

Another release that could affect the movement of the US dollar is the release of Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls was much stronger than expected, as the reading of 749 thousand beat the estimate of 650 thousand, and was much higher than the previous reading of 428 thousand. Will the official Nonfarm Payrolls release follow suit and beat the forecast of 900 thousand new jobs? If so, it would point to allay concerns about the health of the US labor market and would likely give a boost to the US dollar.

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Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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