Finally!! Equities rejoice on trade deal sign-off

 

A done deal, so far….

After three years of sometimes acrimonious and bitter confrontation on trade tariffs, the US and China finally signed off on phase one of what most hope will become a stepping stone to a broader trade deal. That seems to be for the distant future as I’m sure US President Trump will become focused on getting re-elected at the November presidential poll.

Despite the euphoria of getting the trade deal signed, which involves stricter controls on technology transfers to Chinese companies, a $200 billion spending spree on US goods and services over the next two years and zero tolerance of currency manipulation, the cloud of current tariffs remains in place as Trump has said it will only probably be reviewed after the election and would be subject to scrutiny of whether China has complied with the T&Cs of the phase one deal. The monitoring of China’s compliance will be very strict, reportedly.

Nevertheless, US equity indices have continued the recent bull-run after the US30 index closed above the 29,000 mark for the first time yesterday. China shares were not quite so enthusiastic, with the China50 index slipping 0.5%.

 

US30 Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

 

Aussie upbeat on trade deal, data

The Australian dollar was firmer across the board during the Asian morning, lifted initially by the trade deal signing but then given an extra boost from November loans data, which showed a 1.8% increase, more than the +0.4% economists had expected and close to October’s +2.0%. Investment lending for homes accelerated to +2.2% from +1.4% seen the previous month.

AUD/USD climbed as much as 0.2% to the highest since Monday and is now up 0.02% at -.69071. AUD/JPY is up 0.04% at 75.932

 

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

 

US retail sales on tap

We are still waiting for the December new loans data from China, which could come at any time. They’re expected to increase by 1.19 trillion yuan, a slightly slower pace than November’s 1.39 trillion. The final reading for Germany’s consumer prices for December are also due. The first estimate suggested a 0.5% m/m gain.

The North American session features US retail sales for December, with a 0.3% gain month-on-month expected, a slight improvement from November’s +0.2%. Aside from the weekly jobless claims, we also have the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for January, which is expected to jump to 3.9 from 0.3 last month, which was the lowest reading since June.

 

The full MarketPulse data calendar can be viewed at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

 

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Andrew Robinson

Andrew Robinson

Senior Market Analyst at MarketPulse
A seasoned professional with more than 30 years’ experience in foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities, Andrew Robinson is a senior market analyst with OANDA, responsible for providing timely and relevant market commentary and live market analysis throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Having previously worked in Europe, since moving to Singapore he worked with several leading institutions including Bloomberg, Saxo Capital Markets and Informa Global Markets, proving FX strategies based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis as well as market flow information. Andrew began his career as an FX dealer with NatWest and the Royal Bank of Scotland in the UK.