The S&P 500 could set a new closing record on Monday, after falling just short of it late last week.
Hopes for progress on the US-China trade front is propelling stock markets higher across the world. The Office of the US Trade Representative said late last week that the world’s two largest economies had made headway in finalizing a “phase one” trade agreement.
President Donald Trump told reporters Monday that the United States is ahead of schedule in terms of signing the deal. Stocks climbed in response, and the S&P (SPX) finished only three points below the all-time closing high it set on 26 July on Friday. But with stocks rallying on Monday, the wait for a new record could be over in a matter of hours. The S&P 500 traded up 0.6% shortly after the open.
Although nothing is guaranteed in the stock market, today is a lucky day: October 28 is historically the best day of the year for stocks, according to LPL Financial senior market strategist Ryan Detrick. S&P 500 stocks have risen 0.54% on average on October 28 between 1950 and 2018.
The Dow (INDU) climbed 0.6%, or 160 points. Still, the index was some 1.5% below its July record high at Friday’s close. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) is also up, trading 0.7% higher. The index is about 1% below its all-time high from July.
“Stocks could also be supported on expectations Fed Chair Powell will deliver a third consecutive and remain data dependent if more are warranted,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
The Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting kicks off Tuesday, ahead of its monetary policy decision on Wednesday at 2 pm ET. Chances of another quarter-percentage point interest rate cut stand at 94%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It would be the third rate cut this year.
“The Fed can’t afford another market disruption and policy mistake and judging by the steepening of the curve, financial markets are convinced the Fed will remain accommodative,” Moya said.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Ed Moya