European update – Trade war, ECB, gold

Cautious optimism ahead of ECB

There’s caution optimism across European markets on Thursday as China and the US offer gestures of goodwill and investors get excited about a massive ECB stimulus package.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

The trade war has seriously tested investors’ eternal optimism over the past year and while there has been scares and investors faith has at times wavered, we’re now back at near record highs again and all is hunky dory. I mean, we’re also apparently headed for recession so perhaps that’s not entirely true.

But we have apparently seen a thawing in relations between the US and China, following token gestures of goodwill between the two, so perhaps we’re at least on the right track. Unfortunately, I’m not really convinced and don’t think they represent a thawing of anything. We’re no closer to a deal despite the niceties and more tariffs are coming. Investors don’t really want to believe that though.

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Draghi to go out with a bang or a whimper?

The big event today is undoubtedly the ECB and whether Draghi is going to go out with a bang or a whimper. Everyone is convinced Draghi means business today and is packing the bazooka for one last showdown. Investors have high expectations with a rate cut, QE and tiered deposit rates expected, combined with all the technical adjustments that makes it all possible.

I can’t help but fear that investors have got a little ahead of themselves here. There are hawks on the board that have repeatedly questioned the need for stimulus and I question whether Draghi’s penultimate meeting as President is appropriate for such a huge package. Draghi isn’t shy of bold policy decisions though, as we’ve seen over the last eight years so who knows.

Gold looking a little soft despite rebound

Gold is back above $1,500 in early trade and enjoying a second day in the green after having tumbled from its peak earlier in the month. It does feel like the mood has shifted towards gold in the near-term, following such a strong rally. The key level above remains around $1,530, while below a break of $1,480 would be very interesting.

Gold Daily Chart

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Economic Calendar

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This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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