European open – Brexit, China trade, gold, oil

Plenty more Brexit fun to come

Europe is poised for a slightly higher open on Monday, as we prepare for a couple more eventful days in Parliament with the UK edging ever closer to no-deal on 31 October.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

Despite numerous defeats last week, Boris Johnson and his team remain defiant and are sticking to the party line that, come what may, the UK will be leaving at the end of next month. That won’t be easy after the Lords passed the bill requiring the PM to request an extension if a deal isn’t agreed but I’m sure he has a few hands still to play yet.

We don’t need to be reminded that we’re living in quite extraordinary political times at the moment, it seems we get daily reminders of that. But with the PM now reportedly weighing up the legality of the bill and threatening to refuse, risking jail time, it is shaping up to be another extraordinary few days before Parliament is suspended ahead of next month’s Queen’s speech.

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Trade war takes its toll on China

The Chinese trade data overnight further highlighted just how great an impact the trade war is having around the world, particularly on the world’s second largest economy. We’ve seen plenty of evidence of the knock-on effects around the globe this year and with further tariffs having been imposed earlier this month and more to come before the year’s out, it’s not going to get any easier.

The cut to the RRR on Friday had been speculated so wasn’t altogether surprising and will likely form a part of a package of measures designed to limit the impact of the trade war and keep the economy growing at around 6%. It will also infuriate the US President, I’m sure, who has not exactly been discrete is his assessment of his own central bank’s response to the trade war.

Gold falls back on Powell comments

Gold is continuing to hang in there despite coming under some pressure late last week. The yellow metal has previously failed once again at the $1,560 level before being hit by a boost in risk appetite that saw equities gain into the weekend. It did bounce back on the release of the jobs report, which showed only 130,000 jobs being added last month but Powell finished off a few hours later.

The Fed Chair once again refused to bow to the pressure of the President and instead stuck to the same message before of doing what is necessary to sustain growth. While people are focusing on the his refusal to accept that the Fed is in an easing cycle, the most important thing is that he’s aware of how aggressively markets are pricing interest rate cuts and is doing nothing to alter that.

Gold Daily Chart

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Oil bulls not giving up without a fight

Oil prices are continuing to respond well to the improvement in overall risk appetite in the markets. While Brent is still struggling to break through the $62.50 barrier, it’s not giving up without a fight. Inventory drawdown’s last week have aided the rally we’ve seen since last Wednesday, while Saudi Arabia’s appointment of a new oil minister may signal more aggressive cutting to lift prices. Still, we need to see a real break of $62.50 if prices are going to be propelled higher with this having been a significant barrier in both directions this summer.

Brent Daily Chart

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This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst - UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam