Morgan Stanley Says Too Late to Stop US Recession

Even if the Federal Reserve does what the market wants and lowers interest rates this summer, things may already be too far gone, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Fed cuts may come too late,” Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a note to clients Monday. “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.”

The economy is already facing some “very real macro risks” including weak jobs data, low inflation and escalating trade tensions, Wilson said.

The market is expecting a rate cut by July by the Fed in response to diving bond yields, volatile stock markets and some sings of weakness. On Friday, May payrolls came in much lower-than-expected and the markets rallied in hopes that the Fed would start cutting as soon as July.

Paired with the “falling rate of inflation and the inability to hits its 2 percent goal” and trade tensions weighing on business confidence, the Fed’s rate cut won’t halt a weakening economy, Wilson said.

Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for global growth to “stagnation” through the end of the year instead of a “continued recovery.”

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza