JP Morgan Predicts Boris Johnson to be Next UK PM

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson will win the race to be the next leader of the United Kingdom and quickly call a general election to gain support for his Brexit plan.

That’s the new base-case scenario from the investment bank J.P. Morgan, who said Tuesday the probability that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal has also risen.



The bank predicted in a research note that Johnson would win a leadership contest and be in place by early September. It added that within days of this, the EU will reject Johnson’s call to remove the controversial Irish backstop arrangement from any Brexit withdrawal deal.

The backstop plan is essentially a legally-binding insurance policy to ensure there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It has been provisionally agreed between the EU and the current U.K. government led by Prime Minister Theresa May, but Johnson and other “Brexiteers” consider it a means by which Europe can continue to dictate terms.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza