GBP/USD – British pound steady as inflation unchanged

GBP/USD has posted small losses in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3035, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, British CPI remained steady at 1.9%, shy of the estimate of 2.0%. There are no major indicators in the U.S. We can expect some movement from the pair on Thursday, with a host of data on both sides of the pond. The U.K. releases retail sales and the BoE credit survey. The U.S. will also post retail sales reports, as well as the Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims.

The Brexit drama has taken a short hiatus this week, so investors are paying more attention to economic numbers. After mixed employment data earlier in the week, British inflation stayed pegged at 1.9%. This is just shy of the BoE target of 2.0%, so policymakers are likely satisfied with current inflation levels.

On Thursday, the focus will shift to consumer spending, with the release of retail sales. The markets are braced for a decline of 0.3% in March in British retail sales, after a modest gain of 0.4% a month earlier. In the U.S., the expectations are for strong retail sales numbers. Retail sales and core retail sales both recorded declines in February, but a rebound is projected for March, with estimates of 0.9% for retail sales and 0.7% for core retail sales. If the actual figures are within expectations, the U.S. dollar could respond with gains.

Risk on as China growth beats estimates

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (April 17)

  • 4:30 British CPI. Estimate 2.0%. Actual 1.9%
  • 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -53.5B. Actual -49.4B
  • 10:00 US Final Wholesales Inventories. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.2M. Actual -1.4
  • 12:45 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 14:00 US Beige Book

Thursday (April 18)

  • 4:30 British Retail Sales. Estimate -0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.9%
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 11.2
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 207K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Wednesday, April 17, 2019

GBP/USD April 17 at 12:20 DST

Open: 1.3048 High: 1.3067 Low: 1.3029 Close: 1.3035

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2729 1.2841 1.2910 1.3070 1.3170 1.3258

GBP/USD edged higher in the Asian session but retracted in European trade. The pair has posted slight losses in the North American session

  • 1.2910 is providing support
  • 1.3070 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2910 to 1.3070

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2910, 1.2841 and 1.2729
  • Above: 1.3070, 1.3170, 1.3258 and 1.3362

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.