GBP/USD has posted slight gains in the Monday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3102, up 0.27% on the day. There are no British indicators on the schedule. In the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 10.1, beating the estimate of 8.1 points. On Tuesday, the U.K. releases wage growth and claimant change.
Britain and the EU agreed to extend Brexit until October, but with Britain hopelessly divided on what happens next, does the extension really change things? The deadlock in parliament remains, and Prime Minister May will be sorely challenged to control her divided Conservative party. On Monday, May wrote a letter to the civil service, stating that contingencies for a no-deal Brexit would continue, despite the extension. With no clear resolution in sight, the pound is likely to face further headwinds.
The IMF handed out a pessimistic report card last week, downgrading its economic forecasts worldwide. However, the projection for the U.K. was particularly bleak. The IMF warned that a no-deal Brexit would push the country into recession, and the damage to the British economy would be seven times as severe as the toll on the European Union. The IMF noted that economic dislocation to border disruption, in the event of a hard Brexit, would be particularly painful to the economy. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for the U.K. from 1.5% in January to 1.2% in April, and for the global economy, from 3.5% in January to 3.3% in April.
Monday (April 15)
- 8:30 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.1. Actual 10.1
- 10:30 BOC Business Outlook Survey
- 12:00 British MPC Member Haskel Speaks
- 13:00 US FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases
- 20:00 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Tuesday (April 16)
- 4:30 British Average Earnings Index. Estimate 3.5%
- 4:30 British Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.9%
- 4:30 British Claimant Count Change. Estimate 17.3K
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
GBP/USD for Monday, April 15, 2019
GBP/USD April 15 at 12:30 DST
Open: 1.3073 High: 1.3119 Low: 1.3071 Close: 1.3108
GBP/USD ticked higher in the Asian session. The pair edged lower in European trade and is steady in the North American session
- 1.3070 is providing support
- 1.3170 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.3070 to 1.3170
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3070, 1.2910, 1.2841 and 1.2729
- Above: 1.3170, 1.3258 and 1.3362
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