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Gold fails to gain ground after soft ADP nonfarm payrolls

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Gold is trading quietly in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1286.85, down 0.08% on the day. In economic news, ADP nonfarm payrolls disappointed, falling to a 3-month low. The indicator fell to 183 thousand, down from 213 thousand in the previous release. On Thursday, the U.S. releases unemployment claims.

It has been a rough March for gold, which has declined 2.0 percent. Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset, and stronger risk appetite is weighing on the base metal. Investors are confident that the U.S. and China will bury the hatchet and reach some agreement on trade and tariffs. The sides have completed four rounds of talks, and all signs are pointing to progress in the bitter trade war, which rocked the stock markets while propelling gold prices upwards. If there is a breakthrough in the talks, traders should be prepared for gold prices to drop sharply.

The focus will be on U.S. employment numbers for the remainder of the week, starting with ADP nonfarm payrolls on Wednesday. Analysts are expecting mixed numbers on Friday. Wage growth is expected to improve to 0.3%, but nonfarm payrolls are projected to slide to 185 thousand, after a strong gain of 304 thousand in the previous release. The unemployment rate has been at record lows, and is expected to dip to a sizzling 3.9% in the February report.

Euro trades softer as ECB looms

Dollar mixed after ECB cuts outlook and markets await US-China trade details

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (March 6)

  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 190K. Actual 183K
  • 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -57.8B. Actual -59.8B
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 7.1M
  • 12:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 14:00 US Beige Book

Thursday (March 7)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 225K

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Wednesday, March 6, 2019

XAU/USD March 6 at 12:15 EST

Open: 1287.92 High: 1290.98 Low: 1283.71 Close: 1286.85

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1243 1261 1284 1306 1326 1344

XAU/USD showed limited movement in the Asian session. The pair posted slight gains in European trade but then retracted. The pair has edged lower in North American trade but has recovered

  • 1284 is providing support
  • 1306 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1284 to 1306

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1284, 1261 and 1243
  • Above: 1306, 1326, 1344 and 1365

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
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