Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-03-07

Daily Markets Broadcast

2019-03-07

Wall Street slips on wider trade deficit

In an otherwise quiet session, data which showed the US trade deficit widening to levels not seen since 2008 pressured US indices lower yesterday. In contrast, Australia reported a record trade surplus this morning. All eyes will be on the ECB meeting today.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index has extended yesterday’s weaker bias in early trading this morning, edging closer to the lowest since February 15
• Resistance at the November high of 26,249 remains intact. Support may be found at the 200-day moving average at 25,123
• Q4 data for non-farm productivity and unit labour costs are due today. Costs are seen rising for a second consecutive quarter to 1.6%

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index declined yesterday ahead of the ECB rate meeting later today. There was some speculation the central bank was anticipating growth rates low enough to consider more targeted loans for banks
• The index is sandwiched between resistance at the 200-day moving average, which is at 11,832 today, and trendline support around the 11,280 level. The 100-day moving average lies at 11,200
• The ECB rate meeting will be the centre of attention today, with Draghi’s press conference at 1330GMT highly anticipated to see the ECB’s reaction to the recent spate of weaker economic data.

AU200AUD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Australia200 index touched a six-month high this morning, shrugging off weaker than expected retail sales data. The index could be benefiting from a shift in the outlook for RBA monetary policy, with markets starting to price in a cut by June
• The August high of 6,390 could be the next resistance point as the index is comfortably above all the Fibonacci retracement levels of the August-December drop
• Retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in January, a strong rebound from December’s -0.4%, but below economists’ estimates of a 0.3% gain. The trade surplus widened to a record high in January due to a strong exports performance.

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