USD/CAD has moved lower in the Tuesday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3256, down 0.33% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events until Thursday. In the U.S., JOLTS Jobs Openings is expected to slow to 6.84 million. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases CPI reports.
The Federal Reserve hit the rate trigger four times in 2018, as the Fed responded aggressively to a red-hot U.S. economy. However, the global trade war and slower U.S. growth has resulted in the Fed lowering its forecast to two hikes in 2019. This could be overly optimistic, as the rate futures market has forecast no rate hikes until 2020. On Monday, Fed President Michelle Bowman said that she was satisfied with current monetary policy, and that the labor market and inflation levels had put the economy in a “good place”.
Canada’s labor market ended the week with an exclamation mark, as the economy created 66.8 thousand jobs in January, crushing the estimate of 6.5 thousand. It was the second banner reading in three months. Still, the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise rates at its next meeting on March 6. Weak oil prices are weighing on inflation, and the Canadian dollar is down 1.1 percent in February. Similar to the Fed, the BoC has become more dovish, after raising rates three times in 2018.
Tuesday (February 12)
- 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 6.84M
- 12:45 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 19:30 US FOMC Member George Speaks
Wednesday (February 13)
- 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.1%
- 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Tuesday, February 12, 2019
USD/CAD, February 12 at 7:45 EST
Open: 1.3301 High: 1.3314 Low: 1.3255 Close: 1.3256
USD/CAD posted small losses in the Asian session and the downward trend has continued in European trade
- 1.3200 is providing support
- 1.3290 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.3200 to 1.3290
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3200, 1.3125 and 1.3049
- Above: 1.3290, 1.3383, 1.3445 and 1.3547
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